Analysts called the April figures disappointing, saying that they highlighted the vulnerability of the market and pointed to a subdued outlook for the rest of 2026, with the economic fallout from the Middle East conflict expected to weigh further on consumer spending.
LONDON, May 23 (Xinhua) -- Britain's retail sales fell 1.3 percent in April -- the steepest monthly decline since May 2025 -- as weak consumer confidence and higher fuel costs curbed spending amid the Middle East conflict.
Data released Friday by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed the plummet followed a 0.6 percent rise in March and a 0.8 percent fall in February, driven mainly by fuel sales, which plunged 10.2 percent -- the largest monthly drop since November 2020.
Excluding automotive fuel, total retail sales fell only by 0.4 percent month-on-month in April, the ONS said. It noted that motorists are making fewer journeys and delaying refueling as prices rise, while retailers reported that consumers had stocked up on fuel after the outbreak of the war in Iran.
Analysts called the April figures disappointing, saying that they highlighted the vulnerability of the market and pointed to a subdued outlook for the rest of 2026, with the economic fallout from the Middle East conflict expected to weigh further on consumer spending.
Harvir Dhillon, economist at the British Retail Consortium, said, "We are starting to see signs that concerns over the Middle East conflict and its impact on living costs are leading shoppers to rein in their spending in many areas."
Joshua Bamfield, director of the Centre for Retail Research, told Xinhua that retail sales have yet to recover to pre-pandemic levels, as well as those seen in the early years of the pandemic (2020-2022). The trend of "smaller and smaller increases in real-terms retail spending is likely to continue for most of 2026," he said.
Similarly, Les Dolega, a senior lecturer at the Department of Geography and Planning at the University of Liverpool, said retail sales in Britain have largely stagnated since the pandemic and, despite signs of improvement since 2024, the April decline showed the recovery remains fragile and far from linear.
April's figures reflect the volatility of the British retail landscape, shaped by both external economic shocks and the sector's ongoing structural transformation, Dolega told Xinhua.
"Modest improvements in consumer spending can be quickly undermined by economic shocks, geopolitical instability and the broader structural weaknesses of the British economy," he said, noting that the rising energy prices caused by the Iran war are likely to put additional pressure on food prices.
Similarly, Dhillon said, "Discretionary spending is likely to drop further as the cost-of-living squeeze worsens," suggesting the government avoid further inflationary pressures through domestic policy costs to protect consumers and support economic growth in the months ahead.■
