by Xinhua writer Xiong Maoling
WASHINGTON, Oct. 18 (Xinhua) -- Sub-Saharan African economies will likely suffer from exacerbated food insecurity if new shocks continue to drive up food prices, an International Monetary Fund (IMF) official has said.
"If you look to grain prices over the past six, seven months, they have increased significantly because of the fertilizers," Zeine Zeidane, director of the IMF's African Department, told Xinhua in a recent interview, noting that there is always "a lag effect" with fertilizers.
"You may not be able to plant in the next season, or plant with limited fertilizers. If you have limited access to fertilizers, you would expect that the yield that you have from agriculture will fall, and that will affect prices," Zeidane said.
The U.S.-Iran conflict and disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz drove up fertilizer prices considerably this year, but that's just one factor affecting food insecurity prospects in sub-Saharan Africa, he said, noting that the other factor is the attack on grain shipments from Ukraine and Russia in the Black Sea, due to the ongoing Ukraine crisis.
"If new shocks happen, we'll also have probably low agricultural production in many places in the world, including in Africa," Zeidane said.
El Nino, in particular, could significantly affect agricultural output and push up food inflation, he said.
The official noted that food is a big part of the consumer price index basket in African region. If food inflation rises sharply, the overall inflation will rise with it. "We're pretty concerned about inflation."
"This is why our call in the update is to have kind of tightening bias in terms of monetary policy to make sure that inflation will remain under control," Zeidane said, referring to the IMF's newly released Regional Economic Outlook Update for sub-Saharan Africa.
According to the update, median inflation in the region is projected to rise from 3.4 percent in 2025 to 4.3 percent in 2026 and 5.0 percent in 2027. Growth forecast is 4.5 percent for both 2026 and 2027.
Zeidane said the IMF now has support programs in place for nearly 20 countries in the region and, amid multiple shocks, including the U.S.-Iran conflict, the IMF is in ongoing discussions with some 10 countries on potential new programs, including Senegal and Malawi.
The update noted that pre-war fiscal adjustment and declining debt ratios are important achievements for sub-Saharan Africa, yet "high interest burdens, low reserves in many countries, and falling aid leave limited room for absorbing another adverse shock."
Looking ahead, the update noted that "risks remain decidedly tilted to the downside," including renewed energy supply disruption, sovereign repricing, further aid cuts, and severe weather shocks.
Zeidane expected prolonged impact of the U.S.-Iran conlfict. "As a shock persists, clearly, policy buffers are running thin, and impact will be much worse than over the past six months."
On asset pricing, the official noted that U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have risen by more than 100 basis points since the conflict started, keeping borrowing costs for African countries elevated.
"If it becomes even higher and stays higher for longer, that will be really detrimental to the dynamic of fiscal sustainability because borrowing costs would rise much faster than economic growth," he said.
The 2026 Annual Meetings of the IMF and the World Bank Group was held in Bangkok, Thailand, from Oct. 12 to Oct. 18. Commenting on sub-Saharan Africa's trade relations with Asia, Zeidane sees "good development" over the past few decades, and Asia has become one of the largest trading partners of Africa.
"In particular, China has become the largest trading partner almost everywhere in African countries," he said.
Zeidane noted that in the past decade or two, he has seen more financial support from Asian countries, including China, South Korea, Japan, India and Gulf countries. "This part of the world has been playing a more important role in providing financing to Africa."
Zeidane said he wants to see more foreign direct investment from Asian countries in Africa.
Looking to the future, the official said that he is optimistic about Africa.
"Wherever you have a young population, you will have a lot of creativity, innovation, tech savviness," he said. "I have no doubt that this region will leverage technology to grow faster."
"I think Africa would be the future of the global economy, will be the engine of global growth," Zeidane added. ■