PARIS, March 26 (Xinhua) -- Higher energy prices are expected to push up U.S. inflation more than declining import tariffs can offset, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said on Thursday.
Headline inflation in the United States is projected to rise to 4.2 percent in 2026, up 1.2 percentage points from projections released in December 2025, before falling to 1.6 percent in 2027, the OECD said in its latest Economic Outlook.
The report noted that the impact of higher energy prices on inflation would outweigh the effects of lower effective tariff rates, adding that earlier tariff increases in the first half of 2025 had only been partially passed through to consumer prices.
According to the report, U.S. economic growth is expected to moderate from 2.0 percent in 2026 to 1.7 percent in 2027, as strong investment related to artificial intelligence is gradually offset by slower growth in real incomes and consumer spending.
Globally, growth is forecast to ease to 2.9 percent in 2026 from 3.3 percent in 2025, before edging up to 3.0 percent in 2027. The OECD warned that the evolving conflict in the Middle East and a prolonged period of elevated energy prices would significantly increase business costs, drive up consumer price inflation, and weigh on economic growth. ■