SACRAMENTO, United States, July 21 (Xinhua) -- From backyard barbecues to burger chains, Americans are paying more for beef than ever before as drought, disease, and trade tensions shrink supplies of the nation's favorite meat, government data and industry analysts said.
Ground beef averaged 13.49 U.S. dollars per kilogram in June, the highest level since records began, according to the consumer price index (CPI) released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on July 15. The figure is nearly 12 percent higher than a year earlier and eight percent above January's reading.
According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS), the weighted average advertised price for all featured steak cuts stood at 25.34 dollars per kilogram, up roughly eight percent from the same week a year earlier.
AMS gathers price information from nearly 25,000 grocery outlets nationwide. Wholesale markets painted an equally stark picture. Live cattle futures settled Monday at 4.97 dollars per kilogram, according to commodity tracker Trading Economics.
USDA's Economic Research Service has raised its 2025 average steer price forecast to 6.88 dollars per kilogram after boxed beef values jumped 21 percent in the first half of the year, the agency said in its "Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook" issued July 17.
The root cause is the lowest number of beef-cow herd in more than seven decades. USDA statistics counted just 27.9 million beef cows on Jan. 1, down one percent from 2024 and the lowest tally since 1951. Reestablishing a breeding herd typically takes two to three years, meaning supplies will remain tight well into 2026, economists warned.
"Beef is the new eggs," CNN Business wrote Monday, echoing this structural shortage. The cable news outlet quoted ranchers in drought-hit Texas who said they sold off breeding females last year because dry pastures could not support them.
Principal trade partners have compounded the squeeze. As of Aug. 1, the Trump administration announced a hefty 50 percent tariff on beef imported from Brazil. Combined with existing tariffs, Brazilian beef now faces a total tax burden of about 76 percent when entering the U.S. market.
This dramatic price increase stems from ongoing political tensions and concerns about food safety, as well as worries that excessive foreign beef is flooding into America. As a result, Brazilian beef will likely become too expensive to compete in the U.S. market, effectively shutting it out. Unfortunately, that also meant American consumers can expect to pay even more for beef at the grocery store, according to the University of Illinois Farm Policy News.
Popular news media have amplified the sticker shock. ABC News reported that "hamburgers will be the most expensive ever" this summer, while independent broadcaster NTD News called the prices "unprecedented."
Bloomberg opinion columnist Javier Blas captured the mood in a July 14 essay titled "Flipping burgers won't be cheap." He argued that even if rainfall improves, ranchers must first rebuild depleted pastures, delaying any rebound in calf numbers.
With the United States being the world's largest beef consumer, the price spiral is rippling across the globe. Farm Policy News noted U.S. import demand pushed up wholesale prices in Australia and New Zealand. Analysts said global buyers could face similar shortages if American processors outbid them for limited frozen beef supplies.
At the checkout line, shoppers are adapting. CNN Business quoted California resident Maria Lopez, who said she is "cutting steaks in half" to stretch family meals, and a Utah burger chain owner who has reduced patty weights from 150 grams to 130 grams rather than raise menu prices.
USDA economists see little short-term relief.
"Tight cattle supplies are expected to keep beef prices elevated," the July 17 outlook stated. The message was clear for households worldwide that enjoy American-style burgers and steaks: Expect smaller portions or higher costs at least through next year. ■