MOSCOW, Oct. 26 (Xinhua) -- As Russia and Ukraine prepare for another round of U.S.-mediated trilateral talks that could begin as early as Nov. 10 in Abu Dhabi, persistent distrust and their conflicting objectives are likely to strain negotiations.
The key chasm over territorial concessions and security guarantees remains unbridged, with Russia demanding Ukraine's neutral, non-NATO status, and Kiev insisting on binding Western defense commitments to ensure its future safety.
CONFLICTING BATTLEFIELD NARRATIVES
Russia and Ukraine continue to offer diverging accounts of recent battlefield developments, with Moscow claiming steady advances along the entire front and Kiev disputing the claims.
During a meeting with General Staff leadership and senior commanders on Oct. 16, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Russian forces had taken control of about 6,500 square km of territory and 310 settlements since the beginning of the year.
Moreover, just over 10 percent of the Donetsk region and 16.5 percent of the Zaporizhzhia region remain under Ukrainian control, while the Luhansk region is fully under Russian control, Putin added.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky later dismissed the Russian claims as false, saying that Ukrainian forces "had liberated more territory than the Russians had captured" since the start of autumn, adding that the same was true at other points this year.
According to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, Operation Vivaldi, a Ukrainian counteroffensive conducted from May to mid-October, has reclaimed 277 square km of territory and disrupted Russia's plan to encircle the remaining Ukrainian-held cities in the Donetsk region.
Meanwhile, both sides have carried out large-scale attacks on each other's energy and military-industrial infrastructure, with no sign of sustained de-escalation.
According to Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov, Russia has been continuing large-scale strikes on Ukraine's military-industrial, logistics, energy and transport infrastructure, prioritizing missile and drone production, storage and launch sites.
Recent media reports said Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure caused power outages in Kiev and other regions, while Russia experienced major internet disruptions due to Ukrainian strikes on data centers of Yandex and Sberbank, as well as a domestic fuel crisis due to drone attacks on multiple oil refineries.
DIVERGING DEMANDS FOR PEACE
Earlier this year, representatives of the three countries held trilateral negotiations in Abu Dhabi and Geneva. However, there was little progress beyond exchanges of prisoners of war as Moscow and Kiev stuck to their basic demands.
Last week, U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff met separately with Zelensky in Oslo and Putin in St. Petersburg, with the sides agreeing to resume trilateral negotiations in November.
Despite the U.S.-mediated diplomatic efforts, Russia and Ukraine still seem unwilling to compromise on their territorial and security objectives, which may render the upcoming negotiations merely nominal.
Moscow has repeatedly said it would only accept a final peace settlement that addresses the conflict's origins, not a "freeze" at the line of contact. However, its conditions effectively amount to Ukraine's capitulation.
In early October, Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev reiterated that a "lasting peace" requires Ukraine to cede all territories Russia has claimed, including the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions; to accept a neutral, non-nuclear status with a drastically reduced military; and to abandon its "nationalist course" by reversing bans on the Russian language and culture. If Ukraine fails to meet these demands diplomatically, Russia will achieve them militarily, he added.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said earlier that there will be no ceasefire to allow Kiev to rearm. Moscow's position reflects its longstanding opposition to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's eastward expansion, which it views as a threat to its national security.
The Ukrainian position on an acceptable peace settlement differs substantively. The primary goal is not just retaining territory, but also security guarantees.
In an interview with ABC News on Friday, Zelensky expressed willingness to reach a ceasefire deal but rejected proposals to give up 25 percent of Ukrainian territory.
Zelensky also outlined a comprehensive security framework for Ukraine during a joint press conference with the Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo on Thursday. It combines NATO membership, direct U.S. security guarantees backed by Congress and support of the European-led Coalition of the Willing, built around a strong, adequately funded Ukrainian military.
Alexander Baunov, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, said representatives of both sides describe territorial negotiations as difficult and tense and cautioned against expecting a breakthrough.
Echoing the view, Wang Jin, director of the Center for Strategic Studies at Northwest University in China, said that Russia and Ukraine hold fundamentally different understandings of disputed territories, each viewing land as a cornerstone of political legitimacy.
Given the divergences in the two sides' key demands for a peaceful settlement, analysts said it remains unclear whether the next round of talks will generate any truly positive results.
PEACE REMAINS ELUSIVE
U.S. President Donald Trump announced an immediate "energy ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine on social media on Oct. 11, but later suggested the two sides had never agreed to it before his announcement.
Following the announcement, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Zelensky "did not earn a respite." Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov later reaffirmed Russia's position that "peace, not a truce" is needed.
Zelensky said Russia continued striking Ukrainian energy facilities immediately after Trump's announcement, while Ukraine had refrained from targeting Russian energy infrastructure. Zelensky later lifted the ban on strikes against Russian oil refineries amid continued Russian attacks.
The failed energy ceasefire underscores the central paradox of the current diplomatic push: While both Russia and Ukraine are engaging in talks, neither appears ready to give in.
Future progress will depend on battlefield dynamics, changes within Ukraine's political elite, and Russian flexibility, said Andrey Kortunov, an expert with the Valdai Discussion Club in Russia.
With Moscow and Kiev holding fundamentally incompatible visions, the upcoming November talks are likely to be defined more by difficulty than by any immediate breakthrough.
The road from the battlefield to the negotiating table remains obstructed by the same deep-seated distrust and maximalist demands that have stalled peace for years. ■