BRUSSELS, Oct. 1 (Xinhua) -- Russia has recently issued a warning over NATO's military activities in the Baltic region, saying it is prepared to use all means at its disposal, including nuclear weapons, to defend its territory if NATO attempts to blockade Russia's Kaliningrad region.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte responded on Wednesday by describing NATO as a "defensive alliance" and condemning what he called Russia's "nuclear threats."
The exchange has remained largely rhetorical, but highlights rising tensions around Kaliningrad and the broader Baltic region. The question is how far they could escalate.
WHY HAS RUSSIA ISSUED THE WARNING?
Russian embassies in Britain, Belgium and Ireland have recently posted warnings concerning the Kaliningrad region on their Telegram accounts, saying that Russia would use its "entire arsenal" to defend its territory if NATO countries attempted to "blockade" the region. Posts by the Russian embassies in Britain and Ireland explicitly said that this could include the use of nuclear weapons.
Kaliningrad region, a Russian exclave on the Baltic Sea, is separated from the Russian mainland and lies between NATO members Poland and Lithuania. It is a strategically important military outpost for Russia, hosting air defense systems, missiles and naval forces. The accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO has further changed Russia's strategic environment in the Baltic region.
Russia has accused NATO of rehearsing scenarios this year aimed at blockading the Kaliningrad region.
Yulia Zhdanova, head of the Russian delegation to the Vienna Negotiations on Military Security and Arms Control, said recently that NATO military activity near Russia's borders had increased to unprecedented levels and that particular attention was being paid to the Kaliningrad region, with the alliance rehearsing specific scenarios for its blockade.
According to media reports, Lithuania, Poland, France and other countries conducted exercises in nearby areas in June, including scenarios involving the disruption of railway links to the Kaliningrad region.
In August, dozens of military aircraft from NATO countries conducted exercises around the region, simulating the disruption of communications and suppression of air defense systems.
Other developments cited by Russia include moves by the Lithuanian parliament to amend a constitutional provision barring the deployment of nuclear weapons, as well as cooperation between Poland and Germany on digging trenches and building other defensive infrastructure in the area.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has previously warned that an attempt to blockade Kaliningrad could lead to a sharp escalation of tensions and develop into a large-scale military conflict. He said any threat to the region would be met with a response.
HOW HAS NATO RESPONDED?
Rutte said on Wednesday that NATO is a "defensive alliance" and described Russia's nuclear threats as both uncalled-for and unhelpful.
He said NATO should "stay a little bit calm" in responding to Moscow's warning while continuing with strengthening its own defenses and supporting Ukraine.
Rutte also said there was currently no "imminent threat" to NATO territory from Russia, adding that if Moscow were preparing military action against Finland, the Baltic states, Poland or other NATO members, the alliance would be able to detect signs of the necessary military buildup, he said.
NATO spokesperson Allison Hart also confirmed on Wednesday that the alliance had responded to Russia.
"We have sent a response, noting that NATO is a defensive Alliance and none of our activities or exercises pose a risk to any part of Russia," Hart said in a statement. "We strongly condemn any threat of force, including any irresponsible nuclear rhetoric."
While seeking to lower the temperature rhetorically, NATO has continued to strengthen its military posture.
Rutte said on Tuesday that the alliance would further bolster its integrated air and missile defenses and counter-drone capabilities, while maintaining its military presence in the Baltic region.
WHERE COULD THE SITUATION BE HEADING?
Analysts suggest that the likelihood of a full-scale military conflict between Russia and NATO remains low in the near term. However, with military activities increasing on both sides and the Baltic region becoming more sensitive, the risk of new friction caused by miscalculation is growing.
Russian military analyst Alexander Kots said Moscow had "said out loud where the red line is" to discourage anyone from trying to test it in practice.
Nikolai Sokov, a nuclear policy expert and former Russian diplomat, said NATO wants to continue increasing its support for Ukraine, but doing so could bring a growing risk of conflict with Russia.
Analysts say the combination of Kaliningrad's strategic location and growing military activity in the Baltic region makes miscalculation and unintended incidents an increasingly tangible concern.
Russian newspaper Komsomolskaya Pravda commented that NATO currently treats Moscow's warnings merely as "rhetoric," but said it may be time to reassess the meaning of Russia's nuclear statements.
Sokov said the two sides are entering a period that requires "caution and precise calculation," warning that otherwise they risk misreading each other's intentions. ■