ANKARA, May 4 (Xinhua) -- Analysts warn that Türkiye's fight against inflation is becoming more difficult, as persistent price pressures are being aggravated by the Middle East crisis, further clouding the outlook.
Official data showed consumer prices rose 4.18 percent in April, up from 1.94 percent the previous month, pushing annual inflation to 32.37 percent and underscoring the growing challenge of bringing prices under control.
Economists say the conflict involving Israel, Iran and the United States has amplified external cost pressures through higher oil and natural gas prices, while also weighing on investor sentiment and financial conditions in the region.
"The conflict has effectively introduced a new inflationary shock for Türkiye," Istanbul-based economist Mustafa Sonmez told Xinhua.
"Energy and logistics costs are rising again, and these costs quickly pass through to food, transportation and other consumer prices," he said.
Sonmez added that renewed pressure on input costs makes it increasingly difficult for policymakers to maintain their current disinflation path.
"The central bank had hoped inflation would gradually slow in the second half of the year, but the geopolitical environment has clearly deteriorated," he said. "Under these circumstances, the authorities may have little choice but to revise their year-end inflation target upward."
Earlier this year, the central bank raised its inflation projection range to between 15 percent and 21 percent, while maintaining a midpoint target of 16 percent for the year. However, economists increasingly question whether those estimates remain achievable in the current geopolitical climate.
"At this stage, the inflation outlook has clearly worsened," said another Istanbul-based economist, Atilla Yesilada. "Energy prices are the most obvious channel, but the conflict also affects exchange rates, risk premiums and capital flows."
According to the central bank's latest survey of market participants, inflation projections have risen across the board for the next 12 months. Market participants now expect inflation to reach 23.4 percent, while firms in the real sector project 33.7 percent. Households remain even more pessimistic, anticipating price increases of 51.6 percent over the coming year.
Central bank governor Fatih Karahan is expected to present the second quarterly inflation report on May 14 and could revise year-end inflation targets upward.
The conflict's economic fallout comes as Türkiye was already navigating a delicate balance between maintaining tight financial conditions and sustaining growth.
According to the World Bank's latest regional economic update, higher energy and food prices linked to the Iran conflict are expected to weigh on household spending while keeping financing conditions tight.
Türkiye's economy expanded by 3.6 percent in 2025, reflecting moderate growth.
Meanwhile, some economists argue that the disinflation program launched in 2023 has lost momentum and should be replaced with more comprehensive measures beyond monetary policy.
"It is necessary to abandon this policy as soon as possible. Billions of dollars have been spent, billions of dollars in interest have been paid, and billions of dollars in losses have been incurred," Istanbul-based economist Emre Alkin wrote on his blog on Monday. ■