by Zhao Xiaona, Larry Neild
LONDON, March 2 (Xinhua) -- Britain is edging back toward a troubling milestone: nearly 1 million young people without work or training.
Latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that between October and December 2025, 957,000 people aged 16 to 24 were not in education, employment or training (NEET), accounting for 12.8 percent of that age group.
Although the figures are approaching levels seen in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, economists argue that the current deterioration reflects accumulated structural pressures rather than a single abrupt shock.
A TIGHTENING ENTRY POINT
Recent data indicate that more young people are looking for jobs, but fewer are finding them.
Part of the reason is the contraction of entry-level opportunities. Sectors that traditionally offer first jobs -- notably hospitality and retail -- have been under sustained pressure, while many firms have pared back graduate schemes and training budgets. In a softer labor market, employers tend to prioritize experience, leaving first-time jobseekers more exposed.
Sarah Scarfe, an economics lecturer at the University of Stirling, said she was not surprised by the latest statistics.
"It's a trend that's been going on for a little while now," she told Xinhua. "The fact that it's a trend doesn't make it any less of a problem. If anything, it almost makes it more of a problem because you don't know how high it's going to go."
Scarfe warned that unemployment early in life can have lasting consequences.
"The size of those negative effects is worse if you have unemployment when you're younger," she said. "When you first start looking, you're quite likely to find a job in the first month. But if you don't find one in the first month, it's less likely in the second month and it gets less likely as you go on."
The risk, she suggested, is that short-term weakness at the entry level becomes long-term detachment from the workforce.
COST PRESSURES AND EMPLOYER CAUTION
Business groups argue that rising labor costs are reinforcing employers' reluctance to recruit inexperienced workers.
Kate Shoesmith, director of policy at the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC), said 37 percent of firms have told the chamber that lowering the age threshold for the National Living Wage would deter them from recruiting younger staff.
"With youth unemployment already rising at an alarming rate, it would be a sensible move to delay this change. It would ease the pressure on firms and allow them to give young people a chance to get a foot on the career ladder," she said.
Patrick Milnes, the BCC's head of people and work policy, noted that labor costs remain the biggest cost pressure for businesses, a concern cited by 72 percent of firms. He pointed to last year's increase in National Insurance contributions, further rises in the National Living Wage, and higher business rates as factors weighing on hiring decisions.
"Against this background, it is unsurprising that firms are holding off hiring," Milnes told Xinhua, adding that the imminent introduction of the new Employment Rights legislation has added further complexity for employers.
Scarfe acknowledged that the narrowing pay gap between younger and older workers may also be shaping employer calculations.
"Hiring a younger person is already riskier because you don't know that much about them, and you can't always see that they've worked elsewhere successfully before," she said. "That risk used to be offset by a much lower minimum wage. Now that gap has closed."
DEEPER STRUCTURAL CONSTRAINTS
However, Scarfe cautioned against attributing the rise in youth unemployment solely to wage policy. Britain's prolonged productivity weakness and underinvestment form the broader structural backdrop.
"The UK has had very low productivity growth for a really long time, and a lack of investment and new infrastructure," she said. "That cascades down, and it's the people trying to enter the labor market who, in the end, are the victims of that. There isn't an easy fix that you can just push a button and solve."
She also noted that youth unemployment has a pronounced regional dimension. Areas such as North East England and Wales face persistently weaker job creation, while London's higher youth unemployment partly reflects demographic factors, including a younger and more mobile population competing for limited entry-level opportunities.
Britain's former health secretary Alan Milburn, who is chairing an official investigation into youth unemployment, has warned that 45 percent of 24-year-olds who are NEET have never held a job. He described the situation as both a social injustice and an economic risk, underscoring concerns that prolonged detachment could become structural rather than cyclical.
Scarfe noted that the government has introduced the Jobs Guarantee Scheme and expanded funding for apprenticeships. However, the scheme is expected to provide positions for 55,000 young people over three years, a figure that is modest relative to the scale of the challenge.
She insisted that while targeted programs may help break cycles of prolonged unemployment, meaningful improvement will require sustained investment and stronger productivity growth. ■