BUCHAREST, Nov. 14 (Xinhua) -- Romania's central bank on Friday raised its inflation forecast for the year 2025 to 9.6 percent, up from a previous estimate of 8.8 percent, citing stronger-than-expected impacts from administrative measures and higher energy prices.
Presenting the quarterly Inflation Report, National Bank of Romania (BNR) Governor Mugur Isarescu said annual consumer-price inflation is still expected to follow a downward path, with a sharp adjustment in the third quarter of 2025 as supply-side shocks fall out of the comparison base.
"Compared with the summer projection, we now have a noticeably higher inflation curve," Isarescu said, pointing to the liberalization of the electricity market, increases in indirect taxes and heightened inflation expectations amid "a politically and socially tense environment".
The BNR now expects inflation to reach 3.7 percent at the end of 2026, up from 3 percent previously, and to return to the target band in the first quarter of 2027.
Isarescu added that in 2025 nearly half of inflation will be generated by indirect taxes, including VAT and excise duties, as well as electricity and natural gas prices. ■