SYDNEY, Oct. 13 (Xinhua) -- Australia's winter crop production is forecast to fall 7.9 percent from last season's harvest to 62.9 million tonnes in 2026/27, but remain above the five-year average, agricultural lender Rabobank said on Tuesday.
The forecast volume would be 2.6 percent above the five-year average, following last season's second-largest harvest on record, according to the agribusiness bank's latest Australian Winter Crop Forecast.
Rabobank said firmer grain prices, supported partly by geopolitical disruptions to global exports, were providing some support to growers, although high fertilizer, diesel, agrichemical and freight costs continued to squeeze grower margins.
Report lead author, RaboResearch senior grains and oilseeds analyst Vitor Pistoia, attributed the outlook to "sharply contrasting seasonal conditions" across Australia, with below-average rainfall expected to reduce output in the states of Queensland and New South Wales, while favorable moisture levels and strong yields support production increases in the states of South Australia and Victoria.
Wheat production is forecast to fall 13.3 percent year on year to 31 million tonnes, while barley output is expected to decline 1.2 percent to 16.5 million tonnes. In contrast, canola production is forecast to rise 5.3 percent to a record 8.1 million tonnes, the report said.
The state of South Australia's winter crop is estimated to reach a record 12.44 million tonnes, up 43.7 percent from last season, while Queensland's output is forecast to drop 47.6 percent to 2.03 million tonnes, primarily driven by well-below-average rainfall across much of the state's wheatbelt, according to the Rabobank forecast. ■