BANGKOK, Sept. 2 (Xinhua) -- Thailand's leading business group raised its 2026 growth and export outlooks on Wednesday but warned that a widening economic split and heavy reliance on imported inputs are limiting the benefits of an investment upswing.
The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry, and Banking (JSCCIB) lifted its gross domestic product (GDP) forecast to between 2.1 percent and 2.5 percent, from 1.6 percent to 2.0 percent, citing stronger-than-expected exports and private investment.
The committee expects exports, a key driver of the Southeast Asian country's economic growth, to expand between 12 percent and 16 percent, up from its June-August forecast of 8 to 10 percent.
However, it cautioned that exports and private investment are feeding through to the domestic economy far less than they once did.
The committee noted that export growth of around 14 percent and investment growth of 10 percent used to coincide with GDP expansion of 6 to 7 percent, indicating that high import content is leaving Thailand with a smaller share of the value created. The latest investment wave has also generated relatively few jobs.
In a statement, the group described the recovery as K-shaped. The upper arm is concentrated in digital and artificial intelligence-linked sectors such as computers and semiconductors, while the lower arm covers industries squeezed by imports, including automotive, petroleum, and construction materials.
Over the past five years, output at Thai-owned small and medium-sized firms in seven industries targeted for reform fell by an average of 8 percent, while foreign-owned firms in the same group saw output drop by as much as 19 percent, the committee said, calling for urgent structural reform and better industrial statistics drawn from linked government databases. ■