KUALA LUMPUR, Aug. 21 (Xinhua) -- Malaysia's strong trade performance in the first seven months of 2026 has strengthened economists' confidence in the country's external sector outlook.
Maybank Investment Bank said in a note on Thursday that Malaysia's trade performance remains robust, underpinned by the artificial intelligence (AI)-driven technology upcycle, resilient electrical and electronics demand and broad-based manufacturing exports.
According to the research house, Malaysia's first seven months of trade growth were solid, with exports rising 29.2 percent year-on-year in the January-July period, outpacing 19.8 percent growth in imports and generating a trade surplus of 170.5 billion ringgit (42.15 billion U.S. dollars). The surplus has already exceeded the 156.8 billion ringgit recorded for the whole of 2025.
"The strong year-to-date performance supports our 2026 forecasts for export growth of 27.5 percent and import growth of 21.3 percent, with the trade surplus projected at 286 billion ringgit," said Maybank.
Meanwhile, BIMB Securities has raised its 2026 export growth forecast to 23.4 percent from 15.8 percent and import growth to 16.5 percent from 10.9 percent, citing stronger-than-expected year-to-date performance.
"While export growth may moderate in the coming months as front-loading effects gradually fade, the outlook remains supported by sustained AI-driven demand for semiconductors, continued U.S. tariff exemptions on semiconductor products, and stronger energy exports, particularly liquefied natural gas and crude petroleum," the research house said in a note on Thursday.
As a result, Malaysia's trade sector is likely to remain a key growth driver through the remainder of 2026, it added.
MBSB Research has also raised its 2026 export growth forecast to 22 percent from 18.9 percent, while lifting its import forecast to 16 percent from 13 percent. ■