SEOUL, July 14 (Xinhua) -- The South Korean government significantly revised up its 2026 economic growth outlook to 3.0 percent on Tuesday amid an unprecedented semiconductor export boom.
The Asian country's real gross domestic product (GDP), adjusted for inflation, was forecast to expand 3.0 percent in 2026, up from a growth of 2.0 percent estimated in January, according to the Ministry of Finance and Economy.
The government's revised forecast stood out as highly optimistic compared to a more conservative growth estimate of 2.6 percent from domestic and international institutions, including the Bank of Korea (BOK), the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
If the government's target is met, it will mark South Korea's fastest economic expansion since 2021, when the real GDP grew 4.7 percent.
The upward revision was driven by massive global investment in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure that led to the unprecedented semiconductor export boom.
Outbound shipments jumped 70.9 percent from a year earlier to 102.25 billion U.S. dollars in June, topping 100 billion dollars for the first time in the country's history.
Semiconductor exports skyrocketed 199.5 percent to hit an all-time high of 44.82 billion dollars, surpassing 40 billion dollars for the first time.
The first-half export also set a historic record, soaring 48.4 percent to 496.7 billion dollars.
Beyond external trade, early facility investment by chipmakers and policy measures such as a supplementary budget also boosted domestic outlooks, mitigating downward pressures from the renewed Middle East tensions.
The country's nominal GDP, which reflects inflation through the GDP deflator, was expected to soar 12.3 percent in 2026, much higher than an increase of 4.9 percent estimated six months earlier.
The 12.3-percent nominal GDP growth would be the highest in 30 years since 1996.
Fueled by the rapid growth, South Korea's per-capita gross national income (GNI) was predicted to approach 40,000 U.S. dollars this year, while the national debt-to-GDP ratio was forecast to drop from 50.6 percent to 47.0 percent.
Looking ahead to 2027, the real and nominal GDPs were projected to grow 2.2 percent and 4.6 percent each.
The outlook for this year's consumer price inflation was raised to 2.6 percent from 2.1 percent estimated in January.
The upward revision was affected by heightened volatility in global oil prices and a high South Korean won versus U.S. dollar exchange rate.
Dubai crude, South Korea's benchmark, advanced from an average of 69 dollars per barrel last year to 92 dollars in the first half of this year.
For 2027, the consumer price inflation was projected to cool down by 0.4 percentage points to 2.2 percent.
This year's current account surplus was forecast to hit a new high of 290 billion dollars, dwarfing January's projection of 135 billion dollars and more than doubling the previous all-time high of 123.1 billion dollars, set just last year.
The customs-cleared export was expected to surge 40 percent in 2026 from a year earlier, while the import was set to increase 20 percent.
The outlook for next year's current account surplus was set at 245 billion dollars.
Private consumption was forecast to rise 2.0 percent this year and 2.1 percent next year amid improving consumer sentiment.
Facility investment was expected to climb 5.0 percent in 2026 and 3.3 percent in 2027 thanks to higher demand for semiconductor manufacturing equipment and semiconductor plant expansions.
Construction investment forecasts for this year and next year were set at 0.2 percent and 0.8 percent, respectively.
The number of jobs was predicted to grow 150,000 in 2026 and 170,000 in 2027. ■