BANGKOK, April 28 (Xinhua) -- Thailand's economy is projected to expand 1.6 percent in 2026, down from 2 percent seen earlier, supported by domestic and external demand despite pressures from global geopolitics and energy prices, the Ministry of Finance said on Tuesday.
Exports, a key driver of the Southeast Asian country's economic growth, are expected to rise 6.2 percent this year, an upward revision from a 1 percent gain estimated earlier, the ministry said in a statement.
Shipments would benefit from regained demand among major trading partners and continuous export growth signals since the first quarter, particularly in industries that have recovered alongside the global economic cycle, said Vinit Visessuvanapoom, director general of the ministry's fiscal policy office.
Private consumption is forecast to continue growing at 2.3 percent, driven by a rebound in the vital tourism sector, which helps distribute income to the grassroots level, and government cost-of-living relief measures that sustain household purchasing power, Vinit told a news conference.
Private investment is anticipated to increase 3.2 percent as state-promoted investment projects, especially for targeted industries under the "Thailand FastPass" mechanism, which removes key regulatory obstacles, begin to take shape, he said.
The official also noted that domestic stability remains sound, with headline inflation expected at 3 percent, remaining within the target range despite tracking higher global energy prices.
Addressing future outlooks, Vinit affirmed the Thai government's readiness to manage fiscal space flexibly amid challenges from global geopolitics, energy crises, and artificial intelligence disruptions while maintaining fiscal discipline.
However, the ministry cautioned that several risks require close monitoring, including the potential prolongation of Middle East conflicts, global trade volatility stemming from protectionist policies, and heatwaves and droughts linked to the El Nino phenomenon. ■