BANGKOK, April 1 (Xinhua) -- Thailand's economy is expected to grow 1.2 percent to 1.6 percent this year, down from a 1.6 percent to 2 percent growth seen earlier, a leading business group said on Wednesday, citing signs of stagflation amid a global energy shock.
The Thai Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry, and Banking (JSCCIB) said the prolonged conflict in the Middle East intensifies the risk of a worldwide economic slowdown, which is reflected in surging government bond yields and declining prices for gold and risk assets.
The primary threat includes a shortage of critical commodities, especially oil, natural gas, and raw materials, which could stall global production and ripple through the entire supply chain to consumers, said JSCCIB chairman Kriengkrai Thiennukul.
The country's inflation for 2026 is now projected to accelerate to between 2 percent and 3 percent, a sharp increase from the previous forecast of 0.2 percent to 0.7 percent, the group said in a statement.
Kriengkrai said the revision reflected higher retail fuel prices in line with market mechanisms, which directly affect living expenses, consumption, and private-sector confidence.
The JSCCIB maintained its export forecast, a key driver of growth for the Southeast Asian nation, indicating a projected fall of 0.5 percent to 1.5 percent this year.
The group noted that inbound tourism could see about one million fewer foreign visitors over the next three months due to travel restrictions. ■