DHAKA, Feb. 11 (Xinhua) -- Bangladesh is scheduled to hold its parliamentary elections on Thursday, the first general election since Sheikh Hasina resigned as prime minister in August 2024 amid nationwide political chaos and subsequently went to India.
The South Asian country now finds itself in an environment shaped by the interplay of multiple factors, including economic adjustments, social reshaping, and institutional reforms, showing that future governing of the country will be bumpy -- it needs to balance the demands of different social groups, to quickly restore the functioning of state institutions, and manage development and security together.
A STRONG-THAN-EVER BNP
The latest polls from several research institutes showed that around 70 percent of respondents intend to vote for the BNP and its alliance. Tarique Rahman, son of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, said in an interview last week that he is fully confident in the party winning the election outright.
Tarique, now 60, comes from a political family. He previously claimed to be persecuted and lived in self-imposed exile in Britain. He returned to Bangladesh in December 2025.
Emran Emon, a sub-editor at The Asian Age and a global affairs analyst, said that from an organizational perspective, the BNP is currently "stronger than at any point in its history."
In terms of policy orientation, the BNP traditionally emphasized nationalist narratives and a relatively conservative socio-political tone, while on the economic front, it focuses more on promoting economic growth, employment, and livelihood improvements.
Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir, professor of economics at Dhaka University, believes the BNP wields strong social influence and, in terms of policy, emphasizes governance reforms and economic stability, pledging to repair the economy and restore governance gradually.
JAMAAT-E-ISLAMI GROWING IN INFLUENCE
Jamaat-e-Islami, the country's largest Islamic political party, along with its main ally, the National Citizen Party, according to polls, holds a 31 percent support rate, with some individual polls even showing it neck-and-neck with the BNP.
The alliance is perceived to be striving to expand its influence by reviving grassroots organizations and strengthening mobilization around specific issues.
Jamaat-e-Islami's policy includes building a safe Bangladesh. On Feb. 4, it released its election manifesto outlining 26 priorities for governing the country, with core concepts including a complete overhaul of the political system, granting greater power to parliament, establishing a citizen-centric public administration system, and combating corruption, among others.
It was reported that the manifesto has garnered widespread support among young people. Imon Hussain, a Dhaka resident, said young people "are all discussing this manifesto and think the policies are very good."
However, Fahmida Khatun, executive director of the Center for Policy Dialogue in Bangladesh, said that Jamaat-e-Islami's manifesto lacks concrete implementation timelines and frameworks.
RISKS FACING THE ELECTIONS
Media outlets in Bangladesh believe that two risks will influence whether victory carries legitimacy or authority, and whether effective governance is possible after the election.
The first is the intensity of potential violence. Imtiaz Ahmed, executive director of the Center for Alternatives, a Bangladeshi think tank, said that containing violent incidents within manageable limits is a crucial task for Bangladesh's caretaker government.
Once high-intensity conflicts occur or attacks are launched against candidates and electoral institutions, the voting process will be threatened, potentially leading to election postponement or providing the losing side with grounds to claim the "election was illegitimate," according to Ahmed.
Emon said that the Awami League, the party led by Hasina, has been barred from participating in this parliamentary election, and its supporters might therefore boycott the vote or depress turnout in its traditional strongholds.
Local media reports also worry about external interference. Emon pointed out that other powers in the subcontinent and some foreign "influential" non-governmental organizations have long attempted to interfere in Bangladesh's affairs. ■