TOKYO, Feb. 7 (Xinhua) -- Voting and ballot counting for Japan's House of Representatives election are set to take place on Sunday, with recent opinion polls by major domestic media outlets suggesting that the ruling coalition, led by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Japan Innovation Party (JIP), is likely to secure a majority of seats.
Yet despite the advantage for the incumbents, a sizeable share of undecided voters and lingering slush fund scandals of the LDP continue to inject uncertainty into the race. Analysts framed the election around two key variables that could sway the final result and four possible outcomes that may reshape Japan's political landscape.
POLLS SHOW EDGE, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
Since the official campaign period began following the dissolution of the lower house in late January, polls by Kyodo News, Yomiuri Shimbun and Asahi Shimbun have largely pointed to a favorable outlook for the ruling alliance.
A Kyodo News poll suggested the LDP alone could surpass the simple majority threshold in the 465-seat chamber. Its coalition partner, the JIP, faces uncertainty over whether it can maintain its current seat count, but together the two parties are projected to possibly reach 261 seats -- the so-called "absolute stable majority" needed to control all 17 standing committees in the chamber.
At the same time, the newly formed opposition Centrist Reform Alliance, formally launched by the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and Komeito, a former ally of the LDP, appear to be losing ground compared with their pre-election seat counts, the poll said.
Polls by Yomiuri Shimbun show a similar trend, forecasting a solo majority for the LDP and a coalition total around 261 seats. Asahi Shimbun's survey is even more optimistic for the ruling bloc, suggesting the LDP and its partner together could exceed 300 seats and potentially reach the two-thirds supermajority line of 310.
Despite these projections, all major surveys note that a significant share of voters remain undecided, leaving room for last-minute shifts.
TWO DECISIVE VARIABLES
Japanese election polling has historically been reliable, but not infallible. Toru Yoshida, professor of Doshisha University, recalled the 2024 lower house election, when surveys failed to predict the ruling bloc's eventual loss of its majority. Current projections therefore do not guarantee the final outcome.
Among the factors that could sway the result, voter turnout is a major variable. Higher turnout typically indicates greater participation from independent and non-aligned voters, Yoshida said.
In the past, such voters tended to favor opposition parties, but this trend has shown signs of change in recent years, with the LDP making visible efforts to attract independents, the professor said. Under such circumstances, a higher turnout rate may benefit the ruling party, he added.
Kumiko Haba, professor emeritus at Aoyama Gakuin University, said weather conditions could also influence turnout. She noted that Japanese voters are more inclined to cast ballots on cloudy days than on sunny leisure-friendly days or during heavy rain. Ongoing heavy snowfall in several regions, however, may create transportation difficulties and suppress voter participation.
Another variable is the lingering political slush fund scandal, which played a major role in the LDP's defeats in the 2024 lower house election and the 2025 upper house election. The LDP has drawn renewed criticism after endorsing more than 40 candidates linked to the political scandal for the upcoming lower house election.
The scandal has also heightened voter sensitivity toward the broader issue of money in politics. Several senior LDP figures, including Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, have recently been associated with political funding irregularities.
A Mainichi Shimbun poll showed that 45 percent of respondents said they would consider political funding issues when voting, compared with only 24 percent who said they would not, suggesting potential headwinds for the ruling party.
FOUR POSSIBLE OUTCOMES
Judging the current situation, there are four possible outcomes for the upcoming lower house election.
The first scenario is that the ruling coalition secures more than half of the seats, but the LDP fails to win a majority on its own. Before the lower house was dissolved on Jan. 23, the coalition held 233 seats -- only narrowly above the halfway mark. If the coalition increases its seat count, its position in parliament would be consolidated, allowing Takaichi to remain in office while still relying on coalition cooperation.
At the same time, any gains by the LDP would also strengthen Takaichi's standing within her own party, where she is often seen as lacking deep factional roots and relying on support from senior party figures. Haba said Takaichi's decision to dissolve the lower house and call an early general election was aimed at strengthening her grip on power and advancing a series of far-right policies.
The second scenario is that the LDP alone wins more than half of the seats. With this outcome, the internal balance of power within the ruling alliance would tilt decisively toward the LDP.
Shortly after Takaichi was elected LDP president last October, Komeito split from the alliance, leading the LDP to form a new governing bloc with the JIP. Taking advantage of the LDP's need for support, the JIP pushed for tough conditions, including cutting the number of lower house seats. The LDP ultimately compromised to stay in power, a move that left some party members dissatisfied.
The Japan Times said a strong LDP showing in the upcoming election could significantly reduce such policy pressure.
The third scenario is that the ruling coalition fails to retain a majority, but the LDP still emerges as the largest single party in the chamber. In such case, the party might attempt to remain in power by forming new alliances. However, Takaichi would step down in line with her earlier pledges, triggering a leadership contest within the LDP and opening the door to a reconfiguration of governing coalition.
The fourth scenario is that the opposition Centrist Reform Alliance surpasses the LDP to become the largest party in the lower house. This outcome could pave the way for an opposition-led administration or force the LDP to urgently reorganize alliances in order to stay in government. But current opinion polls indicate that this possibility is relatively small. ■