KUALA LUMPUR, Jan. 21 (Xinhua) -- Malaysian financial institutions are split on the outlook for exports in 2026, with some forecasting a sharp slowdown amid U.S. tariff pressures, while others see strong momentum supported by resilient electronics demand.
MBSB Bank said in a note on Tuesday that it still anticipates moderation in Malaysia's external trade but is adjusting its forecast for exports to 4.5 percent from 6 percent previously.
"The downward revisions in export growth reflect fading front-loading effects, a high base and the impact of U.S. tariff measures on final demand," said the research house.
Meanwhile, RHB Investment Bank said that Malaysia's export performance in 2026 will be driven by three key trends: strong global and regional growth, developments in U.S. tariff policies and the resilience of electrical & electronics (E&E) exports.
"Our positive outlook for 2026 is reinforced by robust trade data, and we expect this momentum to continue, with export growth projected at 9.3 percent," said the research house.
According to RHB, risks on the external front have eased, with external demand expected to be supported by easing tariff-related risks, continued resilience in E&E exports and improved clarity on reciprocal trade policies.
Over the medium term, it noted potential downside risks from U.S. tariff policy developments are likely to be mitigated by official efforts to diversify export destinations, alongside continued policy support for companies.
OCBC Bank, however, said that it expects slower goods export growth of 2.2 percent year on year for Malaysia in 2026, on account of some payback from the strong export growth to the United States in 2025, as well as slowing external demand conditions.
Notwithstanding, it noted that Malaysia's fundamentals remain strong, driven by reforms undertaken through various national master plans, as well as a solid infrastructure pipeline for the next few years, resilient investment flows, appropriate legislative action, strong labor market conditions and a steadfast commitment to fiscal consolidation. ■