NAIROBI, Sept. 9 (Xinhua) -- Climate scientists have cautioned that El Nino's impact will be severe and vary across eastern Africa, heavily influenced by localized geography and fluctuating Indian Ocean sea temperatures.
Hussen Seid Endris, head of the climate diagnostic and prediction unit at the Intergovernmental Authority on Development's Climate Prediction and Applications Center, told Xinhua that El Nino brings contrasting weather extremes across the region.
Between October and December, the phenomenon drives above-normal rainfall, elevating flood risks in Kenya, Somalia, southern Ethiopia, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania.
"Increased rainfall can be beneficial for crop production, livestock, pasture and water resources," Seid noted. "However, if rainfall is excessive or occurs in short, intense episodes, it can cause flooding, waterlogging, soil erosion, crop damage and losses of livestock and agricultural infrastructure."
Kenya has stepped up its El Nino preparedness by establishing a National Crisis Communication Center. The government also activated its National Contingency Plan to strengthen response capabilities and streamline emergency coordination across vulnerable regions.
In August, Tanzania Meteorological Authority Director General Ladislaus Chang'a told local media that heavy rainfall is set to begin in September and persist throughout the October-December season, extending well into 2027.
"We are issuing two warnings. The first is related to the presence of a strong El Nino heading toward October, November and December. Periods of heavy rainfall could begin as early as September," Chang'a said.
Meanwhile, Alfred Okot Okidi, permanent secretary in Uganda's Ministry of Water and Environment, advised in a weather update that El Nino conditions are expected to peak across Uganda between late October and early November.
"Communities in low-lying and flood-prone areas should relocate to safe areas. Communities are advised to plant trees to reduce run-off speed of the water and install lightning arrestors in risk areas," he said.
Fidele Bingwa, permanent secretary in the Rwandan Ministry of Environment, recently told Rwanda's New Times newspaper that extreme weather conditions can rapidly escalate into severe humanitarian and economic crises.
"For Rwanda, this means preparing for the potential impacts of heavy rainfall, including floods and landslides, and the effects these may have on communities, agriculture and infrastructure," Bingwa said.
The warnings align with broader assessments from the World Meteorological Organization, which designated the Greater Horn of Africa as one of the regions most vulnerable to El Nino's cascading effects.
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned that, fueled by exceptionally warm ocean conditions across the tropical Pacific, the El Nino event is expected to intensify and peak toward the end of the year, with far-reaching impacts continuing into 2027.
Seid called for the use of technology, in particular artificial intelligence, to complement conventional weather forecasting.
"AI can integrate information from satellites, weather stations, numerical models and other sources to generate more timely and actionable early warnings. This is particularly valuable for Africa, where observation networks and computational resources remain limited," he said. ■