by Xinhua Writers Yang Dingdu, Xu Jiatong
NAIROBI, April 2 (Xinhua) -- On a bustling afternoon in Nairobi, the Kenyan capital, the Kibera minibus terminus is a cacophony of noise. Amid the pungent scent of fuel and the blare of horns, drivers complained about climbing operating costs.
The fallout from conflict in the Middle East, thousands of miles away, is rippling through price and cost channels across multiple African countries. It is being felt through rising household expenses, disrupted logistics and mounting trade costs.
THREAT OF "FUEL DROUGHTS"
In Addis Ababa, the capital of Ethiopia, long-distance bus driver Tassew Tesfaye dreads a particular sound, the hollow "click" of a fuel nozzle, signaling that a station has run dry yet again.
The energy squeeze linked to tensions in the Middle East has left many fuel stations across Africa facing "fuel droughts."
"With a single click, an entire day's livelihood goes down the drain," Tassew said. Without fuel, his vehicle cannot start. His family's sole source of income is at immediate risk.
Persistent shipping disruptions in the Red Sea, compounded by heightened tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, have contributed to a global rise in fuel prices.
In response, Ethiopian Finance Minister Ahmed Shide has urged citizens and major institutions to use fuel rationally and sparingly to weather a survival test affecting the entire nation.
"TRIPLE PRICE SHOCK"
The impact of rising energy prices is increasingly evident at the macroeconomic level.
South African Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago warned that if tensions in the Middle East persist, South Africa's inflation rate could climb above 5 percent.
Fuel shortages are also posing a growing challenge to the continent's food security.
Ralph Mathekga, a senior expert at the Liechtenstein-based Geopolitical Intelligence Services, told Xinhua that diesel remains central to agricultural production. If the costs of fertilizer and food production rise alongside oil prices, consumers could face a "triple price shock," he said.
LOGISTICAL BOTTLENECK
As conflicts in the Middle East drag on, many international cargo ships have been forced to reroute around Africa via the Cape of Good Hope.
This diversion adds roughly 3,500 to 4,000 nautical miles to voyages and extends transit times by 10 to 14 days. For shipping companies, this has become an unavoidable reality.
At South Africa's ports of Durban and Cape Town, the concentrated arrival of rerouted vessels has spiked workloads. However, port turnaround efficiency has failed to keep pace, hampered by aging equipment and limited operational capacity.
As a result, waiting times at anchorage have lengthened considerably, in some cases stretching to hundreds of hours. The resulting congestion has further driven up transport costs, placing additional strain on regional trade and logistics networks.
Thorstein Andreasen, a spokesperson for the Danish bunker supplier Monjasa, said that rerouting trends began as early as 2023, when security conditions in the Red Sea deteriorated. The company has since seen a notable increase in bunker fuel demand, with another surge recorded during recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran.
QUEST FOR RESILIENCE
Skyrocketing freight costs and high imported fuel bills are placing growing pressure on foreign exchange reserves across Africa, contributing to heightened inflation risks.
At the local level, many small businesses are struggling to stay afloat as they absorb the impact of these broader economic pressures.
These external shocks lay bare Africa's structural vulnerabilities. Limited domestic energy processing capacity and heavy reliance on global supply chains have left several countries particularly exposed.
Patrick Lumumba, a Kenyan scholar and former director of the Kenya Anti-Corruption Commission, highlighted a persistent paradox: despite abundant natural resources, Africa continues to "export crude oil while importing refined products," leaving it vulnerable to global disruptions.
As uncertainties in the Gulf region persist, strengthening economic resilience is becoming increasingly critical.
Advancing the African Continental Free Trade Area, expanding local refining capacity and investing in renewable energy are seen as key steps toward reducing external dependence and enhancing long-term stability, Lumumba said. ■