by Zodidi Mhlana
JOHANNESBURG, March 5 (Xinhua) -- Amid a complex global landscape marked by surging protectionism and geopolitical volatility, China's 4.5 percent to 5 percent economic growth target for 2026 serves as a vital stabilizer for the world economy, a South African economist said.
In an interview with Xinhua, Tafadzwa Ruzive, a researcher and economist at the University of the Free State, said that China's economic planning reflects a high degree of "stability, pragmatism and feasibility."
According to data released by the Chinese government, China's gross domestic product grew by 5 percent year on year in 2025. The Asian country on Thursday unveiled major development targets for the 2026-2030 period as a government work report was submitted to its top legislature for deliberation.
"China is a staunch believer in multilateralism and free trade, acting as an anchor amid geopolitical conflict and market volatility," Ruzive said, noting that the 4.5 percent to 5 percent target for 2026 is not merely a number but a reflection of China's strategic resolve.
By aligning sectors and resources to achieve this goal, China provides "internal certainty" that insulates its domestic market while safeguarding its trading partners. "While ambitious, the target is pragmatic. It stretches current capacities while integrating new growth factors," he added.
The target underscores China's confidence in both qualitative and quantitative structures of its economy, Ruzive said.
He noted that while quantitative growth continues through infrastructure development and the Belt and Road Initiative, the focus is increasingly shifting toward qualitative drivers such as artificial intelligence, renewable energy and technological innovation.
"The significance lies in demonstrating China's ability to align economic growth with social development objectives," Ruzive said, adding that this continuity reflects the enduring strength of China's five-year planning approach.
According to Ruzive, China's clear roadmap is essential for stabilizing global expectations, allowing partner countries to align their own production and investments. "For example, countries like South Africa can plan exports of commodities such as oranges or iron ore accordingly," he explained. This predictability reduces market volatility, helps stabilize global inflation and boosts international business confidence.
Commenting on China's emphasis on "new quality productive forces," Ruzive said the policy represents a "strategic pivot" that strengthens existing infrastructure while establishing new growth pillars.
"China combines traditional growth drivers with cutting-edge innovation, such as the digital economy and renewable energy, to enhance productivity," he said.
This vision, he added, encourages domestic participation in emerging sectors and ensures the economy remains globally competitive.
As China prioritizes domestic demand-driven growth, Ruzive believes the "dual circulation" policy offers immense opportunities for the developing world. China has been advancing a "dual-circulation" development pattern, in which the domestic market serves as the mainstay while domestic and international markets reinforce each other. By stimulating the demand of its 1.4 billion population, China creates a resilient market capable of absorbing external shocks.
"For other countries, the lesson is to boost domestic demand and integrate excluded populations into productive activity," Ruzive said, noting that a strengthening Chinese economy provides trading partners with predictable demand and enhanced market access. ■