ADDIS ABABA, May 30 (Xinhua) -- The threat of starvation looms in East Africa after four failed rainy seasons, a consortium of meteorological agencies and humanitarian partners have warned.
The consortium of meteorological agencies and humanitarian partners, in their joint statement issued Monday, warned that the situation may worsen due to prospects of an unprecedented fifth poor rainy season between October and December.
"The current extreme, widespread, and persistent multi-season drought affecting Somalia, the arid and semi-arid lands of Kenya, and Ethiopia's Belg-receiving and eastern and southern pastoral areas, is unprecedented," the joint statement read.
The joint alert was made by 12 organizations, including the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA), the World Food Programme (WFP), UN Children's Fund (UNICEF), the World Meteorological Organization, and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD).
According to the joint statement, four consecutive rainy seasons have failed, a climatic event not seen in at least 40 years.
The latest long-lead seasonal forecasts, supported by a broad consensus from meteorological experts, indicate that there is now a concrete risk that the October-December rainy season could also fail, they warned.
"Should these forecasts materialize, the already severe humanitarian emergency in the region would further deepen," the statement read, noting the March-May 2022 rainy season appears likely to be the driest on record, devastating livelihoods and driving sharp increases in food, water, and nutrition insecurity.
According to the joint statement, an estimated 3.6 million livestock have died, with 1.5 million in Kenya and 2.1 million in Ethiopia. In the worst-affected areas of Somalia, estimates suggest that one out of three livestock have perished since mid-2021, as more than 1 million people have been displaced in Somalia and southern Ethiopia.
They warned that existing water deficits have been exacerbated by very high air temperatures, which are forecast to continue into the June-September dry season. Rangeland conditions will deteriorate faster than usual, driving additional, widespread livestock deaths, as well as population displacements.
In cropping areas, harvests will again be well below average, causing a prolonged dependency on markets, where households will have limited food access due to high food prices, the consortium warned.
The Food Security and Nutrition Working Group (FSNWG), a regional platform co-chaired by the FAO and IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Center, estimates that 16.7 million people currently face high acute food insecurity and projects figures to increase to 20 million people by September.
In addition to the drought, food insecurity and acute malnutrition have been exacerbated by other concurrent shocks, including conflict, rising global fuel, food, and fertilizer prices due to the Ukraine crisis, macroeconomic challenges, and the COVID-19 pandemic, the consortium said.
The predicted below-average October-December season would drive a deterioration of an already dire food security and malnutrition situation in 2023, the joint statement warned. ■