PARIS, Nov. 13 (Xinhua) -- The global oil market is expected to return to a surplus in the fourth quarter of 2026, with a more substantial supply build-up projected in 2027, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said Friday in its November Oil Market Report.
The oil market is showing tentative signs of rebalancing, with global oil supply exceeding demand for the first time since the outbreak of the U.S.-Israel-Iran war, the IEA said, adding that observed oil inventories rose by 52 million barrels (mb) in October, as Gulf exports recovered much faster than global oil demand.
Global oil supply increased by 5.3 million barrels per day (5.3 mb/d) since August, reaching 105.4 mb/d in October. The sharp recovery narrowed the year-on-year decline in output to 2.9 mb/d, compared with an average year-on-year decline of 8 mb/d between March and September.
On the demand side, the pace of contraction is expected to ease to 2.7 mb/d year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2026, compared with declines of 5 mb/d in the second quarter and 3.8 mb/d in the third quarter, according to the report.
However, global oil demand continues to be weighed down by disruptions to exports of refined products and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) from the Gulf. High prices, electrification and improved fuel efficiency across the global vehicle fleet are also dampening the recovery in road fuel demand, the IEA said.
The IEA noted that the accelerated release of emergency diesel stocks over the coming months will provide a critical bridge in addressing the supply shortfall until the global refining system recovers and refined product output increases. ■
