by Mahmoud Fouly
CAIRO, Nov. 5 (Xinhua) -- The Democrats' sweeping victory in the U.S. midterm elections reflects widespread dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump's domestic and foreign policies, particularly their economic costs, but is unlikely to fundamentally reshape his Middle East policy, political experts said.
In Tuesday's elections, Democrats secured victories in traditionally Republican states, including Texas, Kansas and South Carolina, and gained majorities in both the Senate and the House of Representatives, ending Republican control of Congress.
The new Congress is scheduled to convene in January.
DEEP DISSATISFACTION
Maged Botros, a political science professor at Capital University in Egypt, described the outcome as a "punitive vote" against Trump, saying voters were responding to rising living costs as well as dissatisfaction with his handling of foreign affairs, including the war with Iran.
"The biggest determinant is domestic economic conditions," Botros told Xinhua, adding that disputes with other countries and the costs of overseas military involvement had compounded voters' frustration.
Saeed Okasha, a political expert and researcher at the Cairo-based Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, said the results were "no surprise," given mounting economic pressures at home and Trump's declining popularity before the elections.
"What drives American voters is the prices of goods and services," Okasha said, adding that "anger over Trump's foreign policies translated into domestic discontent, consequently affecting the congressional election results."
Public opinion surveys underscored the role of economic concerns and opposition to the Iran war. A Reuters/Ipsos poll of 1,765 U.S. adults, conducted from Oct. 29 to Nov. 2, found that 48 percent of registered voters cited the cost of living as the top issue influencing their vote, compared with 26 percent who cited the state of democracy and 13 percent immigration.
An NBC News national exit poll conducted Tuesday found that 63 percent of voters believed the United States had made the wrong decision in taking military action against Iran.
It remains uncertain, however, whether such discontent will translate into constraints on U.S. military decision-making.
Okasha argued that voters' economic concerns did not necessarily mean they would oppose military action against Iran if it were deemed necessary. Botros, meanwhile, stressed what he described as Americans' longstanding aversion to costly military interventions abroad.
LIMITED IMPACT ON MIDEAST POLICY
Despite the Republican setback, Democratic control of Congress is not expected to automatically bring about a major shift in U.S. policy toward the Middle East.
"The matter is not as simple as saying that winning the elections means controlling American decision-making," Okasha said. He pointed to competing interests, powerful lobbying groups and divisions within the Democratic Party, particularly over national security and foreign policy.
Laurel Rapp, director of the U.S. and North America Programme at London-based think tank Chatham House, told CNBC on Wednesday that while Trump would face greater constraints in congressional oversight and investigations, he would retain considerable latitude in foreign policy.
Okasha said the Democratic Party's progressive wing might favor a different approach to the Middle East, but more moderate members were not necessarily inclined to pursue conciliatory policies on national security. Some Democrats, he added, could still support a hard line toward Iran.
He also said Trump himself appeared to favor economic pressure on Iran over further military action.
Botros noted that although the U.S. constitutional system provides for checks and balances on presidential power, Trump retains substantial authority through executive orders and agreements, as well as his veto over legislation.
Control of both chambers will allow Democrats to block legislation, scrutinize the administration and influence spending decisions and appointments. However, overriding a presidential veto requires a two-thirds majority in each chamber, a threshold Democrats are not expected to reach, according to the experts.
A Brookings Institution analysis published in late October noted that even with a new majority, Democrats would be unlikely to secure the two-thirds support needed to override a presidential veto.
Ahmed Youssef, a political science professor at Cairo University, said the shift in the balance of power in Congress would have an impact, but a sudden change in the policies of a major country was unlikely.
"Major powers base their policies on objective considerations," Youssef said, adding that Trump's confrontational approach and willingness to use presidential powers could lead to repeated disputes with lawmakers.
"I expect the final two years of Trump's term to be full of confrontation between the presidency and the legislature," Youssef told Xinhua. "Confrontation, but not fundamental change." ■
