JERUSALEM, Oct. 25 (Xinhua) -- Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has served 19 years in office across several terms since 1996, is fighting for his political survival in Tuesday's parliamentary election.
Analysts say Netanyahu is seeking to turn military gains into electoral support while facing public anger, economic isolation and a shortage of potential coalition partners.
The vote, Israel's first since the Hamas-led Oct. 7, 2023 attack, comes after three years of wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran that have reshaped Israeli politics and deepened divisions over the country's future.
LEGACY OF OCT. 7 AND PROLONGED WARS
Analysts note that Netanyahu's central challenge is persuading voters to judge him by Israel's military achievements rather than the failures that allowed the Oct. 7 attack, which the Israeli authorities said killed about 1,200 people and took 251 hostages.
He has refused to accept personal responsibility or establish an independent state commission of inquiry, instead campaigning on Israel's military achievements against Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran.
Political scientist Ilana Shpaizman at Bar-Ilan University told the Jewish Telegraphic Agency (JTA) that Netanyahu's campaign sought to avoid discussing the Oct. 7 attack and instead emphasize subsequent military successes.
But victims' families dispute the narrative. On Oct. 20, relatives representing 17 hostages who died in Gaza accused Netanyahu of exploiting their deaths in his campaign.
"Do not use their deaths to ask the public for another term in office," they said.
A Channel 12 poll on Oct. 5 found that 65 percent of respondents held Netanyahu largely responsible for the failures, yet 75 percent of coalition voters attributed him at least some responsibility.
Tamar Hermann, a public opinion expert at the Israel Democracy Institute, said the Oct. 7 attack had reinforced existing political loyalties.
"Most of the facts are already on the table, and it is the interpretation of the events that influences people's decisions," Hermann said.
CHALLENGE FROM EISENKOT
Netanyahu faces an unusual challenger in Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief who served in his wartime cabinet before resigning in 2024. Eisenkot's son and two nephews were killed fighting in Gaza.
Eisenkot questions Netanyahu's ability to turn military operations into strategic gains.
"Never has an Israeli government been given so much room to maneuver and so much legitimacy, from the public and the world, and suffered such a resounding strategic failure," Eisenkot said earlier this month.
He promises an independent Oct. 7 inquiry, broader conscription and restored confidence in state institutions.
Yet their differences on Palestinian policy are narrower. Both oppose Palestinian statehood and demand Hamas's disarmament. Eisenkot criticizes settler violence and some settlement expansion, while Netanyahu governs with parties advocating West Bank annexation.
The contest is therefore less about competing visions of peace than about leadership, accountability and the conduct of war.
ECONOMIC PRESSURE, INTERNATIONAL ISOLATION
Netanyahu faces a growing economic dilemma: military policies presented as essential to security have deepened Israel's international isolation and increased the threat of sanctions.
In a Friday interview with Channel 10, he acknowledged concerns over possible banking sanctions.
"Of course I'm concerned," Netanyahu said, suggesting blockchain technology as a possible workaround.
The Bank of Israel rejected the proposal, while 109 economists, business leaders and former officials warned Sunday that sanctions could cause severe economic damage, according to the Israeli Hebrew-language business newspapers Calcalist and Globes.
The controversy highlights a broader challenge to Netanyahu's security doctrine: military gains may come at an economic and diplomatic cost Israel cannot sustain indefinitely.
DOMESTIC DIVISIONS, ULTRA-ORTHODOX DRAFT
Netanyahu also faces opposition over his corruption trial, attempts to weaken judicial oversight and exemptions from military service for ultra-Orthodox Jewish men.
He denies bribery, fraud and breach-of-trust charges, accusing the justice system of political persecution.
The conscription dispute has intensified after three years of wars and repeated reserve deployments.
An August survey by the Dialog Institute for Ynet and Yedioth Ahronoth found that about 70 percent of 509 reservists said the government's handling of ultra-Orthodox conscription would significantly influence their vote. Only 34 percent of former Likud voters surveyed said they would definitely vote for the party again.
Netanyahu risks alienating reservists by protecting his ultra-Orthodox allies, but enforcing broader conscription could jeopardize those alliances, analysts say.
THE BATTLE FOR A MAJORITY
Netanyahu's coalition support collapsed after the Oct. 7 attack and has only partially recovered. Final polls by Kan, Channel 12 and Channel 13 project 50 seats for his bloc in the 120-seat parliament, against 52 to 56 for the opposition and 14 to 16 for Arab parties.
Netanyahu relies on ultra-Orthodox and far-right allies, including Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, whose demands for West Bank annexation further strain Israel's relations with Western allies.
Opposition parties, including right-wing factions, refuse to join a Netanyahu-led government, citing his corruption trial and responsibility for the Oct. 7 attack.
In an interview with Radio 103FM, Eisenkot said that he "will not serve under Netanyahu, not even in a rotation agreement," further narrowing Netanyahu's options.
Gideon Rahat, a political scientist at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, told JTA that Netanyahu's bloc had lost support since winning 64 seats in 2022, but the opposition still lacked a majority.
The paradox is that while many opposition parties agree on replacing Netanyahu, their divisions could prevent them from forming an alternative government, leaving Israel facing another electoral deadlock.■
