by Hummam Sheikh Ali
DAMASCUS, Oct. 21 (Xinhua) -- Israeli forces advanced into the northern countryside of Quneitra province in southern Syria on Tuesday with seven military vehicles and two tanks before taking up positions near the former governorate headquarters, Syrian state TV Al-Ikhbariya reported.
The move was the latest in a series of Israeli military operations in southern Syria since the fall of the former Syrian government in December 2024.
Syrian analysts said that repeated Israeli military incursions into southern Syria could gradually establish a lasting security reality, complicating Damascus' efforts to restore sovereignty and stability.
POST-ASSAD INCURSIONS
Following the fall of Bashar al-Assad's government in December 2024, Israeli forces deployed near Quneitra and established positions within the demilitarized zone, a United Nations-monitored buffer area established under the 1974 disengagement agreement to separate Israeli and Syrian forces in the Golan Heights.
Israel subsequently expanded its presence within the zone, taking control of the Syrian side of Mount Hermon, the highest point in Syria, and establishing multiple military outposts on the mountain.
From these positions, Israeli forces have periodically conducted raids deeper into southern Syria to seize weapons and arrest individuals reportedly linked to groups like Hamas.
Damascus views these incursions as violations of Syrian sovereignty and the 1974 disengagement agreement. Israel, by contrast, has treated the agreement as no longer binding following the collapse of the Assad government.
Syria reportedly seeks to use the 1974 disengagement agreement as the basis for a new security arrangement with Israel, while Israel appears to extend beyond the restoration of the pre-existing arrangements.
SECURITY CONCERNS, STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES
Mohammad Nader al-Omari, a political researcher and analyst, said Israel's operations reflected both tactical security considerations and longer-term strategic objectives.
Israel had cited concerns about potential cross-border attacks by armed factions or individuals, he said, adding that Israel is also seeking to establish new facts on the ground by expanding buffer zones, altering the security landscape and strengthening its position in any future negotiations with Damascus.
Such moves could allow Israel to seek security arrangements different from those established under the 1974 disengagement agreement, al-Omari said.
"The strategic objectives cannot be discussed separately from the tactical objectives," he said, arguing that immediate security measures could serve broader political and territorial goals.
Maher Ihsan, a journalist and political analyst, said that Israel had taken advantage of the security vacuum that followed the collapse of the former Syrian government to expand its military presence in the south.
Ihsan said maintaining positions inside Syrian territory could increase the distance between Israeli territory and potential security threats. The disparity in military capabilities also gave Israel greater operational freedom, he added.
CIVILIAN LIFE UNDER PRESSURE
The incursions could gradually reshape everyday life in southern Syria, the analysts said.
Al-Omari said temporary checkpoints, road closures, detentions and movement restrictions could disrupt commerce, prevent residents from reaching their workplaces and undermine livelihoods in communities still recovering from years of conflict.
He warned that prolonged insecurity could also prompt some families to leave their communities in search of safer living conditions and more reliable sources of income.
Ihsan said repeated, short-duration operations could gradually normalize the presence of Israeli forces in local communities. The recurring pattern of military vehicles entering villages, establishing checkpoints, detaining residents and later withdrawing could make such activity increasingly familiar to local communities, he said.
For al-Omari, the civilian impact also carries wider political implications, as continued insecurity could weaken public confidence in the authorities' ability to restore stability and exercise effective control over the country's territory.
DIPLOMATIC IMPASSE, UNCERTAIN FUTURE
The continued incursions have also raised questions about the prospects for security understandings between Syria and Israel.
Al-Omari said the 1974 disengagement agreement remained a viable foundation for negotiations, but argued that Israel had little incentive to return to arrangements that would require it to withdraw from areas entered since December 2024.
He described Damascus' diplomatic options as limited, particularly in the absence of stronger international pressure to halt the incursions.
Ihsan was also skeptical about the immediate prospects for an agreement. Given Israel's operational freedom in southern Syria, he said, it might see little advantage in accepting restrictions under a negotiated arrangement.
The two analysts, however, differed in their assessments of how the situation might develop.
Al-Omari warned that continued territorial advances could eventually provoke localized resistance or draw Syria into a wider regional confrontation, particularly if tensions elsewhere in the Middle East intensify.
Ihsan considered a broader military confrontation less likely, arguing that Israel would probably continue to make incremental advances, establish additional positions, and respond forcefully to any localized challenges. ■
