SOFIA, Oct. 15 (Xinhua) -- A fresh wave of drone attacks on commercial vessels in the Black Sea, an alternative shipping route to the disrupted Strait of Hormuz, is deepening insecurity along the European Union's (EU's) eastern flank and compounding pressures on an already stretched global shipping network.
A San Marino-flagged vessel caught fire in the Black Sea early Thursday morning, with eight of its 12 crew members still missing, according to Romanian maritime authorities. The incident came just hours after a suspected drone strike on a Comoros-flagged tanker in Romanian waters on Wednesday.
Despite reports about drones detected in the area overnight, Romania's Ministry of National Defense has not confirmed the two vessels were struck by drones. However, over the past week, drones have struck multiple vessels off Bulgaria's coast, leaving 11 crew missing and 10 presumed dead. Both Russia and Ukraine have denied involvement in the recent attacks.
DIPLOMATIC FALLOUT
The strikes have triggered a diplomatic row. Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev has summoned Russian Ambassador to Bulgaria Eleonora Mitrofanova, saying that although there was "no conclusive evidence," "the logic suggests that the outcome benefits the Russian Federation."
Mitrofanova denied knowledge of the strikes and suggested a "provocation by a third party." Moscow rejected a limited naval ceasefire proposal brokered by Türkiye and the UN, saying it lacked guarantees against arms shipments to Ukraine by sea, and blaming Kyiv for refusing comprehensive agreements.
On Thursday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told British media that Kyiv would resume strikes on Russia's oil refineries, citing Russia's attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure as violations against the U.S.-announced "energy ceasefire."
In response, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said the alliance would "adjust our deterrence and defense posture as needed." European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called the Black Sea "another front of escalation" of the Russia-Ukraine war, which is "unacceptable." France and Germany also urged a halt to attacks on commercial vessels.
Bulgarian President Iliana Iotova and Romanian President Nicusor Dan have agreed to jointly push for an emergency item on the Black Sea at the European Council. On Thursday afternoon, the Bulgarian prime minister and the Romanian president met with Mark Rutte in Brussels for regional security discussions. The three NATO littoral states -- Bulgaria, Romania and Türkiye -- have also agreed to boost surveillance and intelligence-sharing.
FROM ONE CHOKEPOINT TO ANOTHER
The attacks are compounding a crisis that began thousands of miles away. The Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries about a fifth of global oil and gas supplies, has faced repeated attacks on tankers since late February. This has pushed some energy and grain cargoes toward alternative routes -- including the Black Sea corridor, now itself in jeopardy.
The Black Sea handles roughly 25 to 30 percent of global wheat exports, over 10 percent of corn and two-thirds of sunflower oil. Russia and Ukraine together normally supply about 27 percent of the world's wheat, most of it shipped through the Black Sea. Their combined wheat shipments from July to September were 6.5 million tons below the same period a year earlier, according to estimates from the International Food Policy Research Institute and the Agricultural Market Information System. Separately, Barva Invest has warned that up to 38 million tons of wheat and corn exports could be at risk in 2026/27 if deep-sea port restrictions persist.
"We see three concerning chokepoints right now that are driving up food prices across the world," said Carl Skau, acting executive director of the UN World Food Programme, referring to the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab Al Mandeb strait and the Black Sea. "All those three are causing disruptions to maritime trade, which is pushing up the price of energy and of food." Countries dependent on Black Sea grain, including Egypt, Türkiye and other parts of the Middle East, face the sharpest impact.
Insurance costs reflect the escalation of the conflict. War-risk premiums for Black Sea voyages have jumped from about 200,000 U.S. dollars to 2.5 million dollars per vessel, according to Lukoil's commercial manager in Bulgaria. Meanwhile, London-based insurance body Joint War Committee has expanded its high-risk zone to cover almost the entire basin.
"The Black Sea didn't become more expensive; it became just harder to access," Alexey Zavarskiy, a ship operator at Angara Denizcilik, said at an industry conference held on Sept. 22. He estimated that around 90 percent of shipowners had suspended calls at affected ports.
Washington's decision on Oct. 9 to temporarily lift sanctions on Russian diesel exports illustrates the dilemma. On paper, it appears to be a release valve for a tight global diesel market: U.S. diesel prices are up 70 percent since February. However, the relief depends on a route that is itself under attack -- Russian diesel loads primarily at Black Sea ports such as Novorossiysk, the same waters where drones are now striking commercial vessels.
The first tranche of about 2.25 million barrels is less than a single day of U.S. diesel demand, and analysts from Quilter Cheviot to Wood Mackenzie have dismissed it as too small and too exposed to make a difference.
CALL FOR NEW FRAMEWORK
Military analysts warn the Black Sea has become one of the world's most dangerous shipping routes, with drone attacks having overtaken sea mines as the primary risk.
Retired Romanian Navy commander Sandu Valentin Mateiu told local media that the density of incidents pointed to a deliberate hybrid campaign. Mateiu said Romania should prepare a serious case for diplomatic protest, potentially raising the issue even at the level of NATO's Article 4. Poland took this step in September 2025 after drones violated its airspace, leading to emergency consultations and the deployment of allied fighter jets and air defense systems to the alliance's eastern flank under the "Eastern Sentry" mission.
Murat Ersavci, director of the International Studies Center at the Economic Policy Research Foundation of Türkiye, said the changing nature of the conflict is reshaping the Black Sea into a "multilayered security environment," with the boundary between trade and security becoming increasingly blurred.
Ersavci called for a comprehensive maritime security arrangement to ensure safe, predictable commercial navigation, distinguish civilian vessels from military targets, and coordinate efforts among littoral states to protect energy and food shipments.
Canan Tercan, a foreign policy expert at Istanbul Aydin University, warned that the Black Sea risked mirroring the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, and that navigational safety "must be secured through an international non-combat agreement, not through naval forces." ■
