GENEVA, Oct. 8 (Xinhua) -- The World Trade Organization (WTO) said on Thursday that global merchandise trade is expected to grow by 3.9 percent in 2026, up from its March forecast of 1.9 percent, driven by supply chain adaptation and strong investment in artificial intelligence (AI).
While raising the forecast for merchandise trade growth, the WTO's latest Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report lowered the outlook for commercial services trade in 2026 over the impact of the Middle East conflict.
The forecast for services trade volume growth in 2026 has been revised down to 3.3 percent from 4.8 percent in March.
In 2027, growth rates in volume terms for merchandise and services trade are expected to rise to 4.1 percent and 6.4 percent, respectively, depending on a timely resolution of the Middle East conflict, the report said.
In the report, the WTO projected global GDP growth at 2.6 percent and 2.9 percent in 2026 and 2027, respectively.
WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said the figures "reflect trade resilience in action."
Meanwhile, WTO Deputy Director-General Johanna Hill told a press conference held on the same day that while the system has proven resilient, that does not necessarily mean it is robust.
"Vulnerabilities remain, and WTO members are working to address them. Strengthening the multilateral trading system will help ensure that the global economy is better equipped to deal with future shocks." ■
