by Xinhua writers Lu Junyu, Chen Haoquan and Wu Hao
RIO DE JANEIRO, Oct. 5 (Xinhua) -- Brazil's presidential election is heading to a runoff on Oct. 25 after a tight first-round vote on Sunday, with Flavio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party and incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva of the Workers' Party separated by only about 2 percentage points.
The first-round results underscored the continued polarization of Brazilian politics, with the two candidates together securing over 90 percent of valid votes. Over the next three weeks, attention will focus on why the race remains so close, how U.S.-Brazil ties could affect the campaign, and where the two candidates could find additional support.
WHY THE CLOSE RACE?
The first-round vote was highly concentrated around the two leading candidates. Flavio Bolsonaro led the first round with about 47 percent of valid votes, followed by Lula with about 45 percent, while all other candidates received less than 5 percent each.
Brazilian media said the gap of less than 2 percentage points between the two was the narrowest presidential first-round margin since Brazil's return to democracy.
Both candidates also have relatively firm political bases but face considerable public rejection; therefore, the runoff begins with two relatively consolidated political camps, leaving less room to win over committed supporters of the other side, local media reported, citing political analysts.
Under Brazil's electoral rules, voters can decline to support any candidate by casting blank or null ballots, a choice that can also serve as an expression of political discontent.
Low voter enthusiasm has added another layer of uncertainty to the election.
According to official results, with more than 99 percent of ballots counted, turnout in the first round was weighed down by an abstention rate of 21.08 percent, while blank and null ballots together accounted for about 5 percent of votes cast.
A pre-election survey by Brazilian pollster Datafolha found that 47 percent of respondents were less interested in this election than in the previous one. Another poll, by consultancy Quaest, showed that 23 percent were "completely uninterested" in the race, while a further 10 percent said they might abstain or cast a blank or null ballot.
With the two political camps already highly consolidated, supporters of the eliminated candidates and voters aligned with neither side could become more important in the runoff.
For Flavio Bolsonaro, consolidating support from voters who backed other right-wing and center-right candidates will be important. Lula, meanwhile, has sought to appeal to voters outside his traditional base with measures addressing livelihood concerns, including tighter regulation of online betting and help for indebted households.
Turnout will also matter for both sides. With less than 2 percentage points separating the two candidates, mobilizing potential supporters who stayed home could dominate the runoff campaign.
HOW COULD U.S. TIES AFFECT THE RACE?
Beyond the complex domestic political landscape, the United States has continued to affect this year's election. U.S.-Brazil relations have become increasingly strained over the past year, with disputes ranging from tariffs and judicial proceedings to visa restrictions.
The U.S. administration has imposed tariffs on Brazilian goods and criticized the conviction of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who was found guilty of attempting a coup after losing his reelection bid, while Lula's government has accused Washington of exerting political pressure on Brazil.
Those tensions have increasingly intersected with the presidential race. U.S. President Donald Trump, who maintained close ties with Jair Bolsonaro, said shortly before the election that he was watching the Brazilian vote "very closely."
Flavio Bolsonaro, son of Jair Bolsonaro, has advocated closer ties with Washington, while Lula's campaign has accused the Trump administration of seeking to interfere in Brazil's presidential election.
But the U.S. factor may prove counterproductive in electoral terms. Pressure from Washington could give Lula more room to emphasize national sovereignty and resistance to foreign pressure.
Daily newspaper Folha de S.Paulo noted that when the United States imposed steep tariffs on Brazilian goods in 2025, Lula's approval ratings rose as his government adopted a stronger sovereignty-focused response. ■
