SINGAPORE, Sept. 15 (Xinhua) -- A renewed uptrend in oil prices would increase the risk of wider trade and current account deficits in ASEAN, especially if accompanied by slower global demand or weaker export performance, OCBC Group Research said in a note on Tuesday.
The region's current account deficit widened in the first half of 2026 compared with 2025 and is likely to remain under pressure in the second half of the year, OCBC said.
"El Nino-related risks could further compound these pressures through reduced agricultural production, lower export volumes and potentially higher food import requirements in some economies," it said.
According to OCBC, rising energy import costs are directly reflected in trade and current account balances, making this the clearest channel through which the current oil shock is affecting regional economies.
Thailand, the Philippines and Vietnam appear particularly exposed given their dependence on imported energy.
For Indonesia and Malaysia, which are net commodity exporters, the terms-of-trade impact depends on price movements for key export commodities such as coal, rubber, crude palm oil and liquefied natural gas.
OCBC said that the macroeconomic consequences for ASEAN may therefore take longer to materialize than those of a traditional inflation shock.
Persistently high oil prices, coupled with El Nino-related food risks and geopolitical uncertainty, could gradually erode fiscal space, widen current account deficits and increase external vulnerabilities, leaving policymakers with more difficult trade-offs in 2027 and beyond, OCBC said. ■
