MOGADISHU, Sept. 14 (Xinhua) -- Somalia is ramping up emergency preparations ahead of the October-December rainy season to mitigate potential flood impacts, as climate experts warn that a strengthening El Nino could bring unusually heavy rainfall.
Somalia's Ministry of Environment and Climate Change and the Somali Disaster Management Agency (SoDMA) convened strategic meetings from Sunday to Monday with local and international partners to strengthen multi-agency flood prevention and emergency preparedness ahead of the anticipated rains.
The forum brought together government institutions, climate experts and international partners to strengthen early warning systems and promote timely action against floods, droughts and other severe weather events, including potential El Nino impacts.
The meeting also evaluated the impacts of previous climate seasons, specifically the 2026 Gu rainy season, and presented the climate outlook for the upcoming Deyr season, spanning October through December.
The emphasis on early action was echoed by SoDMA Disaster Risk Management Director Khadar Sheikh Mohamed, who urged vulnerable communities to take early precautions as the Deyr rains approach at a three-day strategic meeting convened by SoDMA in partnership with the International Rescue Committee (IRC) in Mogadishu and concluded on Sunday.
"The rains are expected during the Deyr season in October, November and December, with communities in vulnerable areas advised to take early precautions," Mohamed said on Sunday.
Mohamed said the disaster agency had already placed 29 districts across 14 regions on high alert for riverine and flash flooding.
Heavy seasonal rains across Somalia and the upper catchments in Ethiopia are expected to push the Jubba and Shabelle rivers toward dangerous levels, while short-duration, high-intensity downpours threaten to trigger severe flash floods in urban and rural areas.
SoDMA has advised residents to monitor official alerts, identify evacuation routes, and assemble emergency kits containing food, water, medical supplies and essential documents.
Communities situated along the Jubba and Shabelle rivers are urged to track water levels continuously.
According to the agency, local authorities must prepare evacuation centers, rescue craft, temporary shelters and emergency response units.
SoDMA further called on community leaders, commercial enterprises and media outlets to actively disseminate public safety notices and flood warnings.
Disaster agency officials have emphasized the critical role of early and anticipatory action in mitigating flood impacts before severe weather strikes.
SoDMA Commissioner Mahamuud Moallim stressed recently that unified, collective action is essential to offset forecasted climate risks, calling for urgent inter-agency coordination to strengthen local preparedness and protect vulnerable communities.
The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction's El Nino climate impact outlook for Somalia highlights a credible risk of severe flooding in the Jubba and Shabelle river corridors if El Nino strengthens alongside a positive Indian Ocean Dipole.
While this scenario is not certain, the report, released on Sept. 7, emphasizes the value of early action given the lead time available and Somalia's limited capacity to absorb additional shocks.
It identifies the Jubba and Shabelle river corridors as high-concern zones and outlines critical preparedness priorities, including finalizing the collective flood anticipatory action framework, establishing trigger protocols, strengthening early warning and evacuation systems, improving WASH and health readiness, and managing compounded displacement.
Additionally, the outlook examines financing and recovery strategies, incorporating lessons from the 2023 floods to support a seamless transition from anticipatory action to long-term recovery.
According to the UN, El Nino could have devastating effects in Somalia, such as heavy rains and flooding along the Juba and Shabelle rivers, flash floods in central Somalia and Puntland, and worsening droughts in parts of Somaliland, putting over 600,000 people at risk.
These impacts could be particularly severe for vulnerable communities already facing dire humanitarian conditions in Somalia. More than 3 million people need humanitarian assistance, 1.1 million of whom are internally displaced.
Previous El Nino events have caused massive flooding in Somalia. Some 900,000 people were affected in 1997-1998, and more than 440,000 people were affected in 2006-2007.
The effects this year could extend several months into 2027, according to the UN. ■
