STOCKHOLM, Sept. 12 (Xinhua) -- Swedish voters will head to the polls on Sunday in a closely contested parliamentary election that will determine whether Prime Minister (PM) Ulf Kristersson's right-wing bloc can retain its parliamentary majority.
Recent polls put the opposition ahead, but the race has tightened in the final weeks. The result could also reshape Sweden's political landscape, with the far-right Sweden Democrats (SD) potentially entering government for the first time, while divisions among opposition parties could complicate their path to power.
HOW DOES THE ELECTION WORK?
Voters will elect all 349 members of Sweden's parliament, the Riksdag, for a four-year term. Regional and municipal elections will also take place on Sunday.
Sweden uses proportional representation. Of the 349 parliamentary seats, 310 are distributed across 29 constituencies, while the remaining 39 are adjustment seats used to make the nationwide result more proportional.
A party generally needs at least 4 percent of the national vote to enter parliament. Voters do not directly elect the PM. The speaker of the Riksdag nominates a candidate, who is approved unless at least 175 lawmakers vote against the proposal.
WHO IS COMPETING?
The election pits two broad political groupings against each other.
Kristersson heads a three-party minority government comprising the Moderates, Christian Democrats and Liberals, with parliamentary support from SD.
The arrangement took shape after the 2022 election, when the four parties won a narrow parliamentary majority with a combined 176 seats. SD won 20.54 percent of the vote and 73 seats in 2022, becoming Sweden's second-largest party, but remained outside government because of longstanding resistance from mainstream parties.
Under the Tido Agreement reached after the election, SD supported the government in parliament while gaining greater influence over policy. The four parties are often collectively referred to as the Tido parties.
This year, the Liberals dropped their previous opposition to SD joining the cabinet, opening the way for a four-party government if the bloc wins. SD leader Jimmie Akesson has made clear that his party wants formal government participation, saying it would be "either in government or in opposition" after the election.
On the other side, former Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson's Social Democrats are seeking to return to power with support from the Green Party, Left Party and Centre Party.
Andersson could face complicated negotiations among the four opposition parties, as they have yet to agree on a government formula. The Centre Party has ruled out a government including the Left Party, saying it would rather face an extraordinary election, while the latter has demanded cabinet representation. Swedish Television (SVT) has described the problem as an "impossible equation."
WHAT ARE THE KEY CAMPAIGN ISSUES?
SVT's final party leaders' debate on Friday focused on the economy, education, climate, crime, integration and healthcare.
Healthcare remains voters' top concern. An SVT/Verian survey published on Aug. 20 found that 64 percent of respondents regarded it as one of the most important political issues, up from 55 percent in May. The Moderates want to shorten the healthcare waiting-time guarantee from 90 days to 30, while the Social Democrats have pledged to increase healthcare funding in line with inflation.
Migration and integration remain a major dividing line. Sweden has tightened migration policy during the current parliamentary term. According to Sveriges Radio on Friday, SD is the only one of the eight parliamentary parties calling for further restrictions after the election, while several opposition parties favor easing some recent measures.
Climate policy is also contested, with parties divided over the pace and cost of the green transition. SD opposes setting Swedish climate targets more ambitious than those of the European Union, arguing that stricter targets could impose additional costs on industry, rural communities and motorists.
WHAT DO POLLS SHOW?
The opposition leads in most final polls, but surveys differ over the size of its advantage.
An Ekot/Indikator poll published on Friday put the four opposition parties at 50.8 percent and the four Tido parties at 47.6 percent, a gap of 3.2 percentage points. The final SVT/Verian poll showed a wider opposition lead of 5.6 points. SVT said the differing surveys meant Sunday's election could still become a "thriller."
The Liberals remain a key uncertainty. The party won 4.61 percent and 16 seats in 2022 but has spent much of the current term below the 4-percent threshold in opinion polls.
Its support has rebounded in the closing stages. The Ekot/Indikator poll put the Liberals at 5.4 percent, while SVT/Verian put them at 5.5 percent. Their survival in parliament could prove crucial to Kristersson's chances of retaining a majority.
WHY COULD THE RESULT MATTER BEYOND SWEDEN?
The election comes amid the growing influence of radical-right parties across Europe. Just a week before Sweden's vote, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) won a record 43.8 percent in the state election in Saxony-Anhalt.
The rise of these parties has sharpened the question of how mainstream center-right forces should respond. Germany's established parties continue to reject cooperation with the AfD, while Sweden has moved from isolating SD to relying on its parliamentary support, with the possibility of bringing it into government.
The Nordic region offers another comparison. In neighboring Finland, the Finns Party already serves in the governing coalition, reflecting what the Finnish Institute of International Affairs has described as the growing influence of radical-right forces in Nordic politics. SD's entry into government would mark a further step in that shift. ■
