NAIROBI, July 30 (Xinhua) -- The MAZU platform represents an important and timely opportunity for Africa to strengthen early-warning and early-action systems as the continent faces increasing exposure to weather and climate-related hazards, said Hussen Seid Endris, Head of the Climate Diagnostic and Prediction Unit at the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Climate Prediction and Applications Center (ICPAC).
In an interview with Xinhua, Endris warned that El Nino conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and are expected to strengthen during the coming months. The latest global model forecasts indicate a high likelihood of El Nino developing into a very strong event during October-December 2026, with elevated probabilities of persisting into early 2027.
"The agricultural impacts will depend strongly on location and timing," Endris emphasized. In parts of the Greater Horn of Africa, the dry and warmer-than-normal conditions expected during July-September could increase pressure on water resources, crops, livestock and pastoral livelihoods, with reduced rainfall leading to declining soil moisture, pasture stress and reduced water availability, particularly where communities are already vulnerable.
The situation changes during the October-December rainfall season. If rainfall is excessive or occurs in short, intense episodes, it can cause flooding, waterlogging, soil erosion, crop damage and losses of livestock and agricultural infrastructure, and disrupt roads, markets, storage and supply chains, thereby affecting food availability and access even where seasonal rainfall totals are favourable.
"The key message is therefore not that El Nino will automatically cause a food crisis, but that it can amplify existing vulnerabilities. The severity of impacts will depend on the timing and distribution of rainfall, the intensity of extreme events, the condition of crops and pastures, and the preparedness of communities and institutions," Endris stated. He stressed that seasonal forecasts should be complemented by monthly and weekly forecasts and national meteorological and hydrological information so that agricultural authorities, farmers, humanitarian agencies and other stakeholders can adjust their decisions as conditions evolve.
Highlighting the role of technology in addressing climate risks, Endris said meteorological satellites are increasingly indispensable to Africa because they provide observations over areas where conventional ground-based monitoring networks are sparse. They provide near-real-time information on clouds, rainfall, land and ocean conditions, atmospheric processes and the evolution of severe weather systems.
"For Africa, the value of satellite technology is not simply the availability of more data. Its greatest value comes from ensuring that the data are transformed into usable climate services, early warnings and early actions at national, regional and local levels," he said.
On the significance of the MAZU platform, Endris said: "For ICPAC, an important aspect of MAZU is the opportunity to strengthen technical cooperation and knowledge exchange with the China Meteorological Administration (CMA). We are interested in exploring opportunities for collaboration that can complement and strengthen existing regional and national early-warning systems in Africa, while ensuring that solutions are tailored to the specific needs and institutional contexts of African countries," he added.
Regarding the integration of artificial intelligence into climate forecasting and hazard monitoring, Endris noted that AI is becoming an important complement to conventional numerical weather forecasting. It can process large volumes of data rapidly, improve weather and climate predictions, enhance satellite monitoring, detect extreme events, and support more localized forecasting of hazards such as droughts and floods. This is particularly valuable for Africa, where observation networks and computational resources remain limited.
"AI should complement, not replace physics-based weather forecasting and meteorological science. Its effectiveness depends on quality data, validation, computing infrastructure and skilled professionals. Human expertise and scientific verification remain essential, particularly for critical decisions related to disaster risk management and food security," he concluded. ■
