BRUSSELS, July 14 (Xinhua) -- The European Union's population is expected to peak at 453.3 million in 2029 before beginning a prolonged decline that would return it to levels last seen in the late 1970s by the end of the century, the European Commission said on Tuesday.
The bloc's population, which stood at 450.6 million at the start of 2025, is projected to fall to about 445 million by 2050 and 398.8 million by 2100, an 11.7 percent decline from its 2025 level, according to the Commission's third report on demographic change in the EU.
The decline will be accompanied by rapid population aging, adding pressure to labor markets, healthcare and long-term care systems, and public finances.
The share of people aged 65 and over is expected to rise from about one-fifth of the population today to nearly one-third by mid-century. The proportion aged 80 and above is projected to more than double, from 6.2 percent in 2025 to about 13.3 percent in 2070, equivalent to roughly 55.8 million people.
Europeans are also living longer. Life expectancy at birth in the EU was estimated at 81.5 years in 2024. By 2100, female life expectancy is projected to exceed 90 years in every EU member, while male life expectancy is expected to reach at least 86 years.
Longer lifespans and growing elderly population are expected to increase demand for healthcare and long-term care, the report said.
The number of people aged over 50 who may require long-term care is projected to rise from 36 million in 2025 to 48 million by 2070, or about 11 percent of the EU population. Public spending on long-term care is forecast to increase from 1.7 percent of gross domestic product in 2025 to 2.5 percent in 2070.
The report said higher labor-force participation and productivity, greater investment in education and skills, and the attraction and integration of legal migrants could help ease labor shortages.
However, migration could only slow population decline and aging, rather than reverse the shift towards an older population structure, it added.
The Commission said it was responding to demographic pressures through measures including an affordable housing plan, an intergenerational fairness strategy, an anti-poverty strategy and skills policies. ■
