LONDON, July 2 (Xinhua) -- Britain's long-delayed Defence Investment Plan commits billions of pounds to drones, missiles and other advanced systems, but experts say it leaves major questions over funding, force size and military readiness unresolved.
Unveiled by outgoing British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Tuesday, the plan adds 15 billion pounds (20 billion U.S. dollars) to previously announced budgets over the next four years. Of the total, the government has yet to explain how 4.7 billion pounds (6.3 billion U.S. dollars) will be financed.
The plan places drones, autonomous systems, artificial intelligence and faster targeting at the center of Britain's military modernization. However, security and fiscal experts say technology alone cannot reverse decades of underinvestment or spare the government difficult choices over taxes, borrowing and public services.
TECHNOLOGY FIRST
More than 5 billion pounds (6.67 billion dollars) has been allocated to drones and other uncrewed systems, including a "hybrid navy" combining crewed vessels with autonomous surface and underwater craft. Other major investments include the Global Combat Air Programme with Japan and Italy, as well as weapons, ammunition, and air and missile defense.
David Galbreath, professor of war and technology at the University of Bath, told Xinhua that the emphasis reflects lessons Britain has drawn from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, particularly the effectiveness of relatively inexpensive drones and the speed at which new systems can be adapted.
The plan also allocates 580 million pounds for infrastructure at the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory, including a new Ernest Bevin Laboratory at Porton Down to expand research into protection against biological threats.
Galbreath said military biological research and public health preparedness have traditionally overlapped, meaning the investment could also strengthen Britain's response to future pandemics and other health emergencies.
LIMITED MASS
The investment may make Britain's military faster and more technologically capable, but experts cautioned against treating autonomous systems as a substitute for personnel, conventional equipment and logistics.
Christoph Bluth, professor of international relations and security at the University of Bradford, described the plan's impact as "positive but incomplete." Its clearest gains lie in drones, ammunition, cyber and electromagnetic warfare, air defense and industrial capacity, he told Xinhua.
"Drones, AI and long-range fires do not automatically replace trained personnel, deployable brigades, logistics, engineering, medical capacity and reserves," Bluth said.
Britain still faces shortages in layered air defense, ammunition stockpiles, naval vessels, combat aircraft and trained personnel, he added. Large nuclear and submarine programs, including Dreadnought and SSN-AUKUS, are also likely to absorb a growing share of funding and the skilled industrial workforce.
Bluth said the package was better understood as a stabilization and modernization effort than a full rearmament program. The armed forces would become "smarter and more lethal, but not necessarily large enough, resilient enough, or ready enough" without continued funding beyond the current settlement.
Investment in machines may improve readiness, but it also raises the unresolved question of where human judgment should lie in increasingly automated military decision-making, Galbreath said.
Procurement will be another test. Bluth said the delay in publishing the plan had already created uncertainty for suppliers, particularly smaller companies.
"A plan is not delivery," he said, pointing to Britain's long-standing problems with slow procurement, unclear orders and difficulty turning promising technology into equipment available at scale.
FUNDING GAP
Max Warner, a senior research economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), said around one-third of the increase had no identified funding source. How the gap is ultimately filled will have consequences for taxes, borrowing or spending elsewhere.
The longer-term gap is considerably larger. Britain has committed under NATO to raise core defense spending to 3.5 percent of GDP by 2035. Warner estimated that meeting the target would require an additional 25 billion pounds (33.3 billion dollars) a year in today's terms beyond the newly announced plans.
Defense would therefore remain "one of the biggest fiscal pressures facing the UK in the medium term," he said. ■
