GENEVA, June 5 (Xinhua) -- The World Trade Organization (WTO) said on Friday that global goods trade remained resilient in the first half of 2026 despite headwinds from the ongoing Middle East conflict, partly thanks to rising artificial intelligence (AI)-related demand.
The WTO's latest Goods Trade Barometer, a composite leading indicator for global merchandise trade, stood at 101.7, down slightly from 102.3 in January. This suggests a possible slowdown in global merchandise trade, the WTO said.
Barometer values above 100 indicate above-trend trade volumes, while values below 100 suggest that goods trade has either fallen below trend or is likely to decline in the near future.
The surge in demand for electronic components related to AI investment may have partly offset the negative impact of the Middle East conflict, the report said.
Of all the component indices of the barometer, the electronic components index stood at 105.5, which has "risen firmly above trend," while the other indices were near their common baseline value of 100, according to the report.
The highly predictive export orders index stayed slightly above the baseline at 100.5.
In its most recent Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report released in March, the WTO projected that merchandise trade would grow by 1.9 percent in 2026 under a baseline scenario, a significant slowdown from 2025.
The organization noted that if energy prices continue to rise, global goods trade growth could fall by 0.5 percentage points to 1.4 percent, while sustained AI investment could add 0.5 percentage points to the growth rate. ■
