SINGAPORE, June 2 (Xinhua) -- The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) on Tuesday maintained its 2026 growth forecast for the ASEAN+3 region at 4 percent but raised its inflation projection to 1.8 percent from 1.4 percent, citing more prolonged disruptions from the ongoing Middle East conflict.
The AMRO said in an interim update to its regional economic outlook that the conflict has entered its fourth month, exceeding earlier expectations that it would be resolved within two months.
It noted energy, commodity and logistics costs have surged and remained elevated, while supplies of petroleum products have tightened. Early signs of disruptions have also emerged in industrial inputs such as helium, sulfur and fertilizers, although broad-based market dislocations have so far been avoided.
"ASEAN+3 growth has remained resilient, supported by firm domestic demand and technology exports. But incipient signs of stress are emerging," AMRO chief economist Dong He said.
The economist said higher energy and transport costs were feeding into inflation and adding pressure on industrial supply chains, warning that a prolonged conflict could broaden these pressures and weigh on regional growth.
The AMRO said first-quarter growth was stronger than expected, but the full impact of the conflict has yet to materialize. Higher energy and industrial input costs, coupled with continued tariff uncertainty, are expected to affect economies unevenly, with net energy importers facing greater headwinds.
The Middle East conflict remains the key near-term risk to the outlook, the AMRO said. Under an adverse scenario where oil prices average 125 U.S. dollars per barrel in 2026, compared with its baseline assumption of 95 dollars, and supply disruptions worsen, regional growth could slow to 2.5 percent while inflation could rise to 3.5 percent.
It said policymakers should adopt agile responses, combining targeted short-term support with longer-term measures to strengthen energy security, supply-chain resilience and regional integration. ■
