by Burak Akinci
ANKARA, April 20 (Xinhua) -- The Middle East crisis is driving up Türkiye's energy import costs, threatening to intensify inflation and widen the country's current account deficit in the months ahead, experts have warned.
Energy prices have surged after Tehran had tightened control over the Strait of Hormuz, a key global route for oil and gas shipments, since Feb. 28, when it barred passage to vessels belonging to or affiliated with Israel and the United States after the two countries' joint strikes on Iranian territory. Washington later imposed its own blockade on the waterway after peace negotiations with Tehran in Pakistan's Islamabad collapsed.
Then, after a brief reopening of the strait announced by Tehran, Iran reimposed control over the strait on Saturday, saying it would not open until the United States lifts its naval blockade on the waterway. Tehran also said it is considering introducing tolls for vessels passing through the strait. These developments, together with a stalled second round of U.S.-Iran talks, have pushed energy prices further up.
According to Turkish Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar, rising energy prices are quickly translating into a heavier burden on the country's finances.
"Every 1 U.S. dollar increase in oil prices adds roughly 400 million dollars to Türkiye's energy bill," Bayraktar said recently to the country's semi-official Anadolu Agency, warning that "the war has caused a crisis in global energy security."
Türkiye imports most of the energy it consumes. Bayraktar noted that the country imports "two out of every three units of energy it uses," with prices largely determined on international markets.
Senol Babuscu, a finance professor at Ankara's Baskent University, told Xinhua that rising energy prices could undermine Türkiye's recent efforts to ease inflationary pressures.
"Energy imports are a major component of Türkiye's current account deficit. When oil and natural gas prices rise sharply, the country's import bill increases immediately, which can widen the deficit," he said.
Higher energy costs also tend to feed directly into domestic inflation currently at around 30 percent annually, he added, as transportation, electricity generation and manufacturing expenses increase.
"Energy is a basic input for almost all sectors," Babuscu said. "If the global price shock persists, it could slow the pace of disinflation and complicate economic management in the coming months."
Central bank figures released on April 13 showed Türkiye's current account deficit expanded to 7.5 billion U.S. dollars in February, lifting the 12-month rolling deficit to 35.4 billion, its highest point in over two years.
Energy expert Mithat Rende said the crisis highlights how geopolitical developments in the Middle East can quickly ripple through global energy markets.
"The Middle East remains a critical hub for global oil supply. Any conflict that threatens production or transportation routes immediately triggers price volatility," Rende said.
"For Türkiye, the issue is not only the price of oil but also the broader uncertainty in energy markets. That uncertainty makes planning more difficult for policymakers and businesses alike," he noted.
Istanbul-based economist Mustafa Sonmez warned that rising energy prices could also slow economic momentum. "When energy prices rise sharply, it not only increases the import bill but also squeezes household purchasing power and raises production costs for companies," he said.
Despite the challenges, Türkiye is pursuing a long-term strategy to reduce dependence on imported energy. Minister Bayraktar said the government aims to expand domestic energy production while increasing the share of alternative sources in the country's energy mix, including renewable energy, domestic fossil fuel production and nuclear power projects. ■
