WASHINGTON, April 17 (Xinhua) -- The conflict in the Middle East has delivered a severe and multifaceted shock to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, with five of the eight oil-exporting countries affected by the conflict expected to experience economic contraction in 2026, an International Monetary Fund (IMF) official has said.
"The outbreak of the war on February 28 has delivered a severe and multifaceted shock to one of the world's most important economic corridors. It disrupted three pillars of stability: energy markets, trade routes, and business confidence," Jihad Azour, director of the IMF's Middle East and Central Asia department, said at a press conference Thursday, during the ongoing 2026 Spring Meetings of the IMF and the World Bank Group.
At the center of the shock is energy, as strikes and precautionary shutdowns have reduced oil and gas output, Azour said.
Commodity disruptions extend beyond oil and gas, Azour said, noting that the price of sulfur exports, as well as ammonia and nitrogen fertilizer exports, also increased, which translates directly into higher food costs for some of the world's most vulnerable populations in economies across MENA, South Asia, and the rest of Africa.
The IMF official noted that the war has also affected services. "Air traffic collapsed, maritime insurance premiums surged, and shipping routes lengthened. Logistics chains also weakened," he said.
Financial markets have contracted, with widening sovereign spreads, capital outflows, and rising borrowing costs hitting countries with limited policy flexibility. "This shock is widespread, profound, and ongoing," he said.
The IMF released its April 2026 Regional Economic Outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia on Thursday. The report shows that economic growth in the "MENAP" region -- comprising the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan -- is projected to slow to 1.4 percent in 2026, a downward revision of 2.3 percentage points from the October forecast.
According to the report, among the eight oil-exporting economies in the region affected by the conflict, five are expected to experience negative economic growth in 2026: Iran, Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain.
Among them, Qatar faces the largest downward revision, with its growth forecast cut by 14.7 percentage points from October to a contraction of 8.6 percent, mainly reflecting widespread damage to its infrastructure.
Iran's economy is projected to contract by 6.1 percent this year, a downward revision of 7.2 percentage points from the October forecast, while Iraq's economy is expected to shrink by 6.8 percent, revised down by 10.4 percentage points. ■
