BELGRADE, April 9 (Xinhua) -- A temporary ceasefire between the United States and Iran has eased immediate market tensions. However, oil prices are widely expected to remain elevated and are unlikely to return to pre-conflict levels in the near term, given ongoing supply risks and uncertainty surrounding the truce.
Oil prices surged sharply after the United States and Israel launched strikes against Iran on Feb. 28, especially with the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping lane that typically handles one-fifth of global oil. Crude prices climbed to above 110 U.S. dollars per barrel in early April.
The announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran raised hopes for the rapid resumption of oil tanker transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices plummeted on Wednesday with Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, dropped nearly 17 percent, to 91 U.S. dollars a barrel.
However, the temporary respite has done little to dispel uncertainty over the durability of the ceasefire and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, which was fully closed on Wednesday according to Iran's state-run Press TV, in response to Israel's continued strikes across Lebanon following the ceasefire.
Iran's semi-official Fars news agency said earlier in the day that the oil tankers' movements across the Strait of Hormuz had stopped concurrent with Israel's fresh deadly attacks on Lebanon, with Brent crude rebounding to 98 dollars on Thursday.
ING Group, a Dutch multinational lender, noted Wednesday that "further price direction will hinge on whether talks translate into a durable agreement and a sustained normalization of flows through the strait," adding that "volatility is likely to persist during negotiations."
UBS Group, Switzerland's largest bank, also said on Wednesday it remains unclear when and to what extent maritime transport through the Strait of Hormuz will recover, noting that some oil tankers may need time to reroute. The bank warned that any renewed disruption could push energy prices higher and added that, even under optimistic scenarios, restoring damaged energy infrastructure and production could take weeks or months.
Barclays, one of Britain's major banks, also echoed the sentiment, saying although the ceasefire has temporarily avoided the worst scenario and opened the door to further de-escalation, oil prices are unlikely to fully reverse recent trend in the near term due to infrastructure damage and uncertainty over the conflict's trajectory.
Meanwhile, it is widely expected that oil prices are still unlikely to fall back to around 72 dollars per barrel, the level seen before the conflict began.
Capital Economics, a London-based research firm, warned on Wednesday that even if the ceasefire holds, Brent crude is expected to average about 95 dollars per barrel in the second quarter and ease to around 80 dollars by the fourth quarter.
Goldman Sachs, a Wall Street investment bank, also said it has lowered its oil price forecasts for the second quarter of 2026 following the ceasefire, now expecting Brent crude to average around 90 dollars per barrel. The bank noted that while geopolitical risks have diminished, uncertainty over supply conditions and the durability of the ceasefire continues to cloud the outlook. ■
