NEW YORK, March 31 (Xinhua) -- The Conference Board reported on Tuesday that its U.S. Consumer Confidence Index rose to 91.8 in March, up from 91.0 in February and 89.0 in January.
Though the reading is also higher than the 88.5 consensus for March, worries about inflation and jobs continue to weigh, and the Iran war is darkening the picture for consumers, the report said.
The Present Situation Index, based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions, increased by 4.6 points to 123.3 in March. The Expectations Index, based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions, declined by 1.7 points to 70.9, mirroring the weight of rising costs due to tariff passthrough and spiking oil prices.
Given the oil shock caused by the war in Iran, consumers' average and median 12-month inflation expectations in March surged to levels last seen in August 2025, when U.S. consumers awaited more tariff announcements from the federal government.
Consequently, the percentage of consumers stating that interest rates over the next 12 months will be higher skyrocketed from 34.9 percent to 42.4 percent. Expectations for higher stock prices a year from now plunged.
Consumers were less optimistic in expectations for their Family's Future Financial Situation, and the share of consumers who said a U.S. recession over the next 12 months is "very likely" rose.
"Consumer confidence ticked up again in March, as a modest improvement in consumers' views of current conditions outweighed a slight downshift in expectations for the future," said Dana M. Peterson, chief economist of The Conference Board. "Nonetheless, the Index has been on a general downward trend since 2021."
"Consumers' write-in responses on factors affecting the economy continued to skew towards pessimism," Peterson added. "Comments about prices and the cost of goods suggest that the cost of living remained at the top of consumers' minds." ■
