KUALA LUMPUR, March 24 (Xinhua) -- Economists have trimmed ASEAN-6 gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast to 4.5 percent in 2026 from 4.8 percent, and to 4.7 percent in 2027 from 4.8 percent, due to the fallout of the conflict in the Middle East.
The ASEAN-6 nations refer to Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Malaysia.
Maybank Investment Bank said in a recent note that the downgrades are larger for the Philippines (-0.4 percentage points), Vietnam (-0.4 percentage points) and Thailand (-0.3 percentage points).
"Surging energy prices and disruptions to commodity supplies will be negative for most ASEAN countries, which are net oil and gas importers," said the research house.
According to Maybank, Malaysia is the only country in the region that stands out as a net energy exporter, which will help cushion the impact of the Middle East shock.
It also said a steep rise in energy prices will worsen the current account balances and weaken the currencies of ASEAN's net energy importers.
Maybank has also raised ASEAN-6 inflation forecast to 2.7 percent in 2026 (from 2.2 percent) and 2.7 percent in 2027 (from 2.5 percent), with higher adjustments for Thailand (+0.8 percentage points in 2026), the Philippines (+0.5 percentage points), and Indonesia (+0.5 percentage points).
"The energy price shock has short-circuited the monetary easing cycle... Higher energy prices and fuel subsidies will add to the fiscal burdens of Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia. Indonesia's 3 percent fiscal deficit ceiling may be tested if the oil shock is protracted," it added. ■
