CAIRO, Feb. 23 (Xinhua) -- While the United States and Iran are scheduled to resume talks on Thursday, there is little indication of de-escalation in their military standoff.
With the United States ramping up its regional military presence, pulling out diplomatic personnel, and issuing mounting threats of potential strikes, regional experts warned that the risk of war in the Middle East is on the sharp rise.
TEHRAN OPEN TO TALKS, READY FOR WAR
Iranian officials have signaled both openness to negotiation and readiness for confrontation.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei warned Monday that any U.S. attack, regardless of its scope and scale, will be considered an act of aggression and met with consequences.
Baghaei stressed that Iran's armed forces remain "vigilantly ready round the clock" even as diplomatic efforts continue.
He indicated Tehran is prepared for sustained talks over consecutive days or weeks, but pushed back against prolonged intervals, saying, "We have no benefit in prolonging the negotiation process."
The comments follow two rounds of indirect talks this month in Muscat and Geneva. A third is expected Thursday in Geneva, with Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi possibly meeting U.S. President Donald Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff.
Meanwhile, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian described recent negotiations as having "yielded encouraging signals," while cautioning that Iran has "made all necessary preparations for any potential scenario."
In a move to demonstrate its strategic leverage, Iran conducted live-fire drills in the Strait of Hormuz last week, a vital chokepoint for global oil shipments. Analysts have warned that any Iranian effort to obstruct the critical waterway could send global oil prices soaring and roil world financial markets.
WASHINGTON'S MILITARY BUILDUP, DIPLOMATS EVACUATION
As negotiations progress, Washington appears to be increasingly preparing for a potential conflict with Iran.
In one of his bluntest remarks yet, Trump said on Friday that he's considering a limited military strike on Iran.
According to the Jerusalem Post, the USS Gerald R. Ford, the world's largest aircraft carrier, is set to arrive off Israel's coast and dock in Haifa on Monday.
As part of the reinforcements, U.S. aerial refueling tankers and heavy transport aircraft have also arrived at Israeli airports, bolstering the naval presence already provided by the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group and its accompanying guided-missile destroyers in the region.
A significant increase in U.S. fighter jets and transport aircraft was also reported at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, a key U.S. military hub in the region, with similar buildups observed at other regional bases.
In Lebanon, the U.S. embassy evacuated dozens of staff members through Beirut's airport on Monday, described by Lebanese media as a preventive step in anticipation of regional escalation.
U.S. officials have stressed that diplomacy is still the preferred route, but have reiterated that "all options are on the table" if diplomacy fails to resolve disputes over Iran's nuclear and missile programs.
In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told parliament the country faces "very challenging days" and issued a direct warning to Tehran, stating that if Iran attacks Israel, it would face a response "with a force they cannot even imagine."
MIDDLE EAST HOLDING ITS BREATH
The escalating tensions between the United States and Iran are leading more analysts to believe that a regional conflict is just around the corner.
"The military preparations and reinforcements the United States is carrying out in the region suggest that the possibility of war and U.S. strikes against Iran is highly likely," said Omani political analyst Khalfan al-Touqi.
If conflict erupts, al-Touqi cautioned, it will not resemble the limited 12-day war in June last year. "The strikes will not be limited, as some expect, but will be far more dangerous, with dire consequences not just for Iran, but for the entire region."
Diplomacy between the two sides has so far failed to yield clear progress on disputes over Iran's nuclear program or broader regional issues, with U.S. allies in the region watching with growing unease, noticed Steven A. Cook, a senior fellow for Middle East and Africa Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.
"For countries in the region, the prospect of U.S. strikes has stirred concerns over reprisals on their territory and a new round of regional upheaval," Cook added.
Echoing these concerns, Dana Stroul, research director at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, pointed to the scale of U.S. preparations as a sign of seriousness.
"The U.S. military is ready for a sustained, highly kinetic campaign," Stroul said, noting that "two U.S. aircraft carriers, along with their accompanying vessels and air wings, were stationed in the Middle East last summer during the 12-day war," a posture that has since been reinforced.
The sense of urgency was amplified Sunday by a New York Times report indicating that Trump is considering launching a "targeted strike" on Iran to pressure Tehran to accept his nuclear demands. If Iran continues to hold out, the report added, that strike could be followed by a "larger attack" later this year.
Some regional experts argued that while the United States is prepared for war, the likelihood of conflict ultimately hinges on whether Iran is willing to make concessions.
Yet not all experts believed war is inevitable. Some argued that while Washington is posturing for conflict, its ultimate goal may be to extract concessions at the negotiating table.
"The most probable scenario is not a full-scale war, but rather a series of threats and possibly limited retaliation, with the United States hoping that Iran ... will opt for concessions in negotiations," said Adnan Hashem, a Yemeni political researcher specializing in Gulf affairs and Iranian politics.
Thair Abu Ras, director of Palestinian Programs at the Van Leer Jerusalem Institute, questioned whether Washington is truly prepared to pull the trigger. Despite the significant military footprint, Ras argued, Washington "is not politically prepared and lacks sufficient legal grounds, and most of its regional allies do not appear to be keen on a war of this nature."
Still, he acknowledged that the massive buildup leaves Washington with limited options. "In light of this scenario, everything remains possible. But after this level of military buildup, Trump finds himself facing two main options: either launching a strike or extracting an agreement that is presented to the American public as an achievement." ■
