BANGKOK, Feb. 11 (Xinhua) -- Thailand's economy is projected to grow 1.6 percent this year, down from the 1.7 percent forecast in July 2025, amid weaker global trade, elevated household debt, and a slower tourism recovery, the World Bank said on Wednesday.
Merchandise export growth is expected to slow notably in 2026, following the front-loading surge last year, with sectors most vulnerable to U.S. tariffs anticipated to see a slight contraction while electronics continue performing well, the bank said in a report.
Heightened trade policy uncertainty remains the primary external risk, as further escalation could potentially lead to reduced exports, supply chain disruptions, and weaker investor sentiment, the World Bank's Thailand Economic Monitor showed.
Tourism also faces risk from safety concerns, increased regional competition, and shifting travel preferences, while political uncertainty stemming from the election cycle may delay the approval and execution of the 2027 fiscal budget, affecting public spending plans, the report said.
However, it noted that higher-than-expected foreign direct investment (FDI), particularly in electric vehicles, electronics, and digital infrastructure, could boost manufacturing activity and productivity, and easing global trade tensions could help restore industrial momentum.
The bank expects Thai economic growth to strengthen modestly to 2.2 percent in 2027, as global conditions stabilize, private investment improves, and FDI projects begin to translate into actual production and employment expansions. ■
