CAIRO, Dec. 31 (Xinhua) -- After a volatile 2025, the Middle East enters 2026 teetering between reset and relapse amid shifting dynamics that will determine which path prevails. Here are 10 major questions to watch in the year ahead.
1. Will the Gaza ceasefire last this time?
Mediators are pushing for the ceasefire's second phase, aiming to establish a Board of Peace and a temporary International Stabilization Force. Yet persistent tensions threaten progress: Hamas resists disarmament while Israel demands Gaza's complete demilitarization. Plus Israel's 2026 legislative election and the Palestinian Authority's mounting challenges, these dynamics will interact to determine Gaza's trajectory in 2026.
2. Will Israel attack Iran again?
The Israel-Iran war in June marked a sharp shift from shadow conflict to direct confrontation between the two archrivals. Although the 12-day conflict ended without triggering a wider war, Israeli leaders continue to view Iran's nuclear program as an existential threat. Meanwhile, Iran's ties with the IAEA remain strained. How these factors evolve in 2026 will heavily influence regional stability and diplomacy.
3. What will happen to those major armed groups?
Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, weakened by military campaigns, will remain under Israeli pressure. Syrian authorities will continue efforts to integrate Kurdish-led militias into state structures, and the PKK's withdrawal from Türkiye will further shift Kurdish dynamics across the region. In Yemen, the Houthis retain firm control of the north, and their tensions with Israel remain at a breaking point. Whether those armed groups will disarm or regroup will reshape the region's power balance.
4. Can post-war countries truly reset?
Since Bashar al-Assad's ouster in late 2024, Syria's interim government has normalized ties with Arab states, secured sanctions relief, and cautiously engaged with the United States, though disputes with Israel over the Golan Heights persist. Iraq faces a delicate political transition as Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' Al-Sudani navigates a fragmented parliament while attempting to revive economic momentum despite oil dependence and lingering militia threats. Both countries' paths in 2026 will test whether post-conflict countries can achieve genuine reintegration and domestic stability.
5. Can divided nations escape internal conflict?
Despite increasing mediation efforts, Sudan's bloody civil war shows no signs of ending for now, and the humanitarian crisis has reached appalling levels. Yemen remains deeply fragmented: even territories out of Houthi control are fractured, with the recent flare-up in Saudi-UAE tensions exposing the conflicting goals of the local factions they back. Libya continues to be governed by rival administrations, yet its High National Elections Commission has started preparations for holding presidential and parliamentary elections in mid-April 2026. Across these countries, ordinary people yearn for a swift return to stability and normal life.
6. Can Abraham Accords expand further?
The Gaza war has significantly dampened prospects for Saudi Arabia or Syria joining the Accords. Heavy Palestinian casualties made normalization politically toxic, even with sustained U.S. efforts to encourage participation. Washington now faces stringent conditions: Saudi Arabia demands a clear path to a two-state solution, while Syria rejects participation over the Golan Heights. Any expansion in 2026 will likely depend on tangible progress toward resolving the Palestinian question.
7. Will COP31 in Türkiye deliver meaningful results?
Following COP30's failure to secure binding commitments on fossil fuel reduction, COP31 in Antalya, Türkiye, faces heightened expectations for concrete action. A key question is whether the United States, which skipped COP30, will return and recommit to global climate efforts. Success will be measured not in pledges but in binding commitments to measurable emissions reductions.
8. Can Gulf states' economic diversification strengthen regional resilience?
Gulf countries are intensifying efforts to reduce oil dependence, focusing on tourism, finance, manufacturing, AI, renewable energy, and green hydrogen. Private sector growth and global trade integration are expected to accelerate in 2026, supporting knowledge-based economies. Persistent youth unemployment drives governments to expand vocational training, entrepreneurship programs, and private-sector incentives. Whether these efforts will bear fruit will determine the region's long-term economic and social stability.
9. How far can America retreat from the Middle East?
The U.S. administration has of late vowed to reorient the country toward the Western Hemisphere and reduce global commitments, yet Middle Eastern realities will constrain its disengagement. Even if Washington truly intends to pull back, ongoing conflicts, energy security concerns, the Palestinian issue, and Israel-Iran tensions all mean it cannot simply walk away.
10. How much further will China-Arab cooperation advance?
With 2026 marking the 70th anniversary of China-Arab diplomatic relations, the second China-Arab States Summit, scheduled to take place in China, will set another milestone. Expectations are running high for more fruitful cooperation in trade, economic, financial, technological, cultural, and other sectors, and for greater progress in building a higher-level China-Arab community with a shared future amid evolving global economic and geopolitical dynamics. ■
