JERUSALEM, Dec. 5 (Xinhua) -- U.S. President Donald Trump said at the White House on Wednesday that the second phase of the Gaza peace plan is "going to happen pretty soon," with media speculating that the announcement could come before Christmas and ahead of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's next visit to Washington.
However, analysts caution that beneath the diplomatic choreography lies a sharp disconnect between Washington's aspirations and the realities on the ground in Gaza.
Divergences still persist among regional actors. Take the reopening of the Rafah crossing as an example: Israel announced on Wednesday that it will reopen the crossing between Gaza and Egypt in the coming days, with exits to be coordinated with Egyptian authorities. Israel also said it would operate one-way only -- allowing Palestinians to exit Gaza but barring entries.
However, Egypt denied coordinating with Israel on reopening the Rafah crossing. An Egyptian source told Israeli daily Haaretz that the crossing should operate as it did during the temporary ceasefire that began in January: open in both directions and managed on the Gaza side by the Palestinian Authority (PA) with support from the European Union Border Assistance Mission. The source described Israel's statement as "a bluff aimed at appeasing extremist elements within the Israeli government."
What may seem like a technical disagreement is in fact a struggle over Gaza's future governance. Roee Kibrik, head of research at Mitvim, the Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies, said, "It is quite clear that the Israeli government's goal in Gaza is to continue the war, even at low intensity, and to prevent progress from phase-one to phase-two of Trump's plan, which would advance a diplomatic process potentially leading to a Palestinian state."
The debate over Rafah's one-way opening illustrates how long the PA can be prevented from establishing even a minimal presence in Gaza -- something that Trump's plan assumes as a starting point.
The implication is significant: for some elements of the Israeli government, Hamas's continued presence -- weak but intact -- serves political purposes by justifying ongoing military operations and blocking any role for the PA, whose involvement could open the door to alternative governance in Gaza, analysts say.
"There is a ceasefire, but with a green light from the Americans, Israel keeps freedom of action when it monitors or discovers threatening activities by Hamas," said Eyal Zisser, vice rector of Tel Aviv University.
According to Israeli officials, Netanyahu's approach has focused on bargaining over procedural details, using technical objections to delay substantive progress.
This disconnect reflects what some experts call the "Yellow Line" reality: without a transition to phase two or disarmament of Hamas, the situation risks remaining static.
Ahmed Alkhatib, resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, noted that Gaza's informal division, with Hamas maintaining control over areas where most Palestinians live, may solidify into a long-term arrangement, regardless of committees or timetables announced.
Trump may proceed with his phase two declaration, but it will not resolve the core questions of who governs Gaza, how security is maintained, or whether a path to Palestinian statehood exists, analysts said.
These fundamental issues remain unsettled. Procedural steps may spur diplomatic activity, but real change in Gaza requires a shift in the intentions of all parties -- a shift that remains out of reach for now, they added. ■
