KUALA LUMPUR, Oct. 22 (Xinhua) -- Economists have foreseen ongoing trade volatility in Malaysia as tariff uncertainties persist.
Maybank Investment Bank said in a note on Tuesday that it still expects Malaysia's choppy monthly external trade numbers to persist, with U.S. tariff uncertainties lingering amid the risk of product-specific U.S. tariffs on semiconductors -- a key Malaysian export to the U.S. -- which are currently exempted from the tariffs.
The research house expects Malaysia's full-year export growth forecast at 4.8 percent this year after its third-quarter exports picked up to 6.7 percent.
"Key highlight of Malaysia's September 2025 trade statistics is the rebound in exports to the U.S. after the share slowdowns in June-July 2025 and the drop in August 2025 following the finalized reciprocal tariff of 19 percent at end-July 2025, which came into effect on Aug. 7, 2025. This suggests exporters are adapting to the new tariff regime as well as front-loading electronics shipments," it noted.
Meanwhile, Kenanga Research said in a note last Friday that Malaysia's trade flows are expected to stay volatile as global supply chains adjust, while commodity exports remain sensitive to global trends.
"Malaysia's exports remain vulnerable to U.S. trade policy shifts, global demand conditions in major economies, and geopolitical developments. However, rising demand from other trading partners and supportive domestic policies could cushion the downside," said the research house.
However, it raised Malaysia's 2025 export growth forecast to 3.9 percent from 3.1 percent previously after a better-than-expected third-quarter performance.
It noted Malaysia's September growth defied expectations of weaker trade amid higher U.S. tariffs and expectations of slower U.S. growth.
Hong Leong Investment Bank also said in a note on Monday that it remained cautious on Malaysia's near-term trade outlook amid persistent uncertainty surrounding heightened trade tensions, potential semiconductor tariffs, and softer demand from key trading partners.
"Furthermore, intermediate imports continue to contract, signaling potential headwinds ahead," said the research house.
Nevertheless, it opined that Malaysia's diversified export structure, both in terms of products and markets, should help cushion some of the adverse effects. ■
