ANKARA, Oct. 6 (Xinhua) -- Türkiye's economic policymakers are entering a more challenging phase after inflation rose in September for the first time in 15 months, complicating their cautious shift from strict disinflation toward supporting growth, economists said.
The Turkish Statistical Institute announced last week that consumer price inflation climbed to 33.29 percent year-on-year in September, up from 32.95 percent in August.
The increase, though modest, ended a long streak of decline that had bolstered confidence in the government's efforts to stabilize prices after a period of extreme volatility.
On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 3.23 percent, well above market expectations.
Analysts said the uptick was driven by higher food, energy, and service prices, suggesting that underlying inflationary pressures remain strong despite earlier progress in disinflation.
The reversal presents a delicate challenge for the central bank, which had cautiously begun to ease monetary policy earlier this year after a long period of tight conditions.
The next policy meeting is scheduled for Oct. 23, and markets are now watching closely to see whether the bank will slow its easing in light of the latest inflation data.
"The bank has to move carefully. The recent rate cuts are a signal that the worst of inflation may be behind us, but they are not a declaration of victory," Atilla Yesilada, an Istanbul-based economist, told Xinhua.
"Now that inflation has picked up again, even slightly, policymakers will likely reassess their pace of easing," the analyst said.
Economists warned that a premature loosening of monetary conditions could weaken the Turkish lira, fueling imported inflation.
However, Mustafa Sonmez, another Istanbul-based economist, said the government's priority appears to be shifting toward supporting growth.
"Growth seems to be gaining importance in policy design, but the room for error is narrow. If external financing conditions tighten or the lira weakens again, even modest easing could trigger another wave of inflation," Sonmez said.
In a recent commentary in the daily Ekonomim, finance professor Emre Alkin of Istanbul's Topkapi University argued that Türkiye is now attempting to strike a balance, loosening policy just enough to sustain growth while keeping anchors for disinflation.
"Whether this approach succeeds depends on how well policymakers can preserve the equilibrium between market confidence, structural reform, and steady disinflation," Alkin wrote. ■
