KUALA LUMPUR, Sept. 12 (Xinhua) -- Analysts have recently foreseen firm crude palm oil (CPO) prices ahead despite export weakness in Malaysia.
CGS International said in a note that it maintained a neutral stance on Malaysia's plantation sector, as ample global vegetable oil supply and subdued demand fundamentals are likely to cap meaningful upside in CPO prices.
"That said, we see upside risk to CPO prices in the fourth quarter, potentially supported by stronger-than-expected demand linked to U.S. biofuel mandates," said the research house.
It noted that Malaysia's palm oil inventory climbed to 2.2 million tons in August, within market expectations, driven by higher CPO production and weak exports.
Meanwhile, Kenanga Research said in a note on Thursday that firm palm oil prices are likely to persist into 2026.
According to the research house, the 2025 edible oil supply is set to trail long-term demand growth of 3 percent to 4 percent year-on-year.
"The expectation for 2026 is for supply to improve slightly more than in 2025 at around 2 percent to 3 percent year-on-year, but still below the 3 percent to 4 percent trend-line demand increment," it explained.
As such, it opined that edible oil prices, including palm oil prices, should stay relatively firm in view of flattish year-on-year inventory moving into 2026.
Hong Leong Investment Bank, on the other hand, maintained its 2025 to 2026 CPO price assumptions of 4,200 ringgit (995 U.S. dollars) per ton and 4050 ringgit per ton.
"We believe CPO prices will remain subdued in the third quarter, before turning more upbeat towards end-2025," the research house said.
According to Hong Leong, the uptrend in palm oil stock levels will likely continue into September, as seasonally higher restocking activities will likely be weighed down by seasonally higher cropping trends and palm's weakened price competitiveness against soybean oil. (1 ringgit equals 0.24 U.S. dollars) ■
