SARAJEVO, July 24 (Xinhua) -- The United States' escalating tariff policies could drive major European economies to decouple from the U.S. market, Gavran Igor, an economic analyst from Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), has said.
Igor pointed out that Washington is using trade policy as a tool of political coercion. "This is no longer trade policy, but economic aggression," he said in a recent interview with Xinhua.
Igor said punitive tariffs set to take effect on Aug. 1 will disrupt value chains and hurt EU economies. They will have indirect yet serious consequences for smaller economies like BiH, which rely on EU-bound exports that ultimately serve the U.S. market.
"Our exports to the U.S. are modest, but our exports to the EU, many of which are incorporated into final goods for the U.S. market, could take a big hit. Small and medium-sized enterprises could be the hardest hit if no alternative markets are found," Igor said.
The analyst said the EU has begun shifting toward a more assertive but diversified trade strategy in a bid to offset the expected losses from a more protectionist United States.
The prospect of a long trade standoff with its closest ally is being openly discussed within the EU.
Igor believes the long-term solution lies in aligning with stable and predictable partners, particularly in East Asia.
"China stands out, not just for its market scale, but for its economic consistency. Unlike the U.S., where trade policy flips with every administration, China provides planning stability over decades," he said.
He also stressed BiH's role as a flexible and open platform for deeper cooperation with Asia.
"We're small, but we can be part of the bridge, linking East and West. Chinese investments in BiH can create jobs, boost exports, and serve as a model for others," he said. ■
